东道国腐败治理、基础设施建设与中国对外直接投资

Governance of Corruption in Host Countries,Infrastructure Construction and China’s OFDI

中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的直接投资平稳增长,设施联通是共建"一带一路"的优先方向,沿线国家腐败治理对于吸引中国OFDI和东道国基础设施均有重要影响。本文拓展了中国OFDI对东道国基础设施的影响机制,分析了东道国腐败治理、中国OFDI对"一带一路"沿线国家基础设施的影响,利用2008-2017年63个"一带一路"国家的面板数据,采用OLS回归和2SLS回归,实证检验了东道国腐败治理程度对其基础设施吸引中国OFDI的影响,结果表明中国OFDI对"一带一路"国家的基础设施存在正向效应,该效应对以人均实际GDP表示的经济发展状况更敏感;东道国腐败治理越好,对其基础设施有正向促进效应,该效应对以GDP增长率表示的经济发展速度更敏感;东道国腐败治理越差,将会降低中国OFDI对其基础设施的正向促进效应。研究结论对发挥中国OFDI在"一带一路"国家的积极影响有一定的指导意义,对推进"一带一路"倡议有重要的政策参考价值。

China’s OFDI in "The Belt and Road" countries grows steadily. Facilities connectivity is the priority direction of co-construction "The Belt and Road". Governance of corruption in host countries has an important impact on China’s OFDI and infrastructure. This paper expands the impact mechanisms of China’s OFDI on host country’s infrastructure, and analyzes the influence of host country’s corruption governance and China’s OFDI on host country’s infrastructure along "The Belt and road". Based on panel data of 63 countries along "The Belt and Road" in 2008-2017 and the OLS regression and 2 SLS regression,this article empirically tests the influence of host country’s corruption governance on its infrastructure attraction to China’s OFDI. The results show that China’s OFDI has a positive effect on "The Belt and Road" countries’ infrastructure, which is more sensitive to economic development in terms of real GDP per capita;the better governance of corruption in host countries has a positive effect on their infrastructure, which is more sensitive to the rate of economic development in terms of GDP growth;the worse governance corruption in host countries reduces the positive effect of China’s OFDI on its infrastructure. The research conclusion has certain guiding significance to give full play to the positive influence of China’s OFDI in "The Belt and Road" countries and has important value for policy reference to promote "The Belt and Road" initiative.