低碳省区试点政策的净碳减排效应

Net carbon emission reduction effect of the pilot policies in low-carbon provinces

低碳试点是实现中国绿色发展的一项重要政策,旨在探索和推广工业化与城镇化过程中低碳建设的做法及经验。客观评估低碳省区试点政策效果,有助于更好积累和推广省级层面的低碳建设经验,进而全面推进绿色化进程与生态文明建设。作者基于2000—2017年中国26个省区的面板数据,采用合成控制法从人均碳排放和碳强度两个方面,对辽宁、广东、陕西、湖北、云南和海南等6个“低碳省区”试点政策的净碳减排效应进行分析和评价,并通过安慰剂检验和双重差分(DID)估计对政策效应的稳健性进行验证和补充分析。研究发现:低碳省区试点政策下,辽宁和湖北的人均碳排放和碳强度均显著下降,即政策效应双有效;广东和云南的人均碳排放显著下降,而这两个省区的碳强度变动并非源于低碳试点政策;低碳省区试点对陕西和海南的碳减排均无效,相反,这两个省区的碳强度以及陕西的人均碳排放显著上升。分析认为,导致各省区净碳减排效应异质性的因素有以下四点:①工业占地区生产总值比重越低,越有利于人均碳排放控制;省区经济水平越高,即人均地区生产总值越高,越有利于碳强度控制。②碳排放权交易试点政策叠加有效促进碳减排。③政策实施前,省区人均碳排放和碳强度指标越低,其减排空间越小,减排难度越大。④经济发展和产业结构优化的惯性作用会长效推进碳减排。有鉴于此,提出以下建议:在省级层面合理布局低碳产业,特别是低能耗、低排放的第三产业,有效降低能源消费;推动人均碳排放和碳强度较高的省区率先减排;加大对经济欠发达省区的节能减排资金与技术支持;加快全国碳排放权交易市场的建设与完善,形成长效的低碳发展机制,实现生态绿色和经济增长和谐共赢。

The national low-carbon pilot provinces and cities project is a major government policy to realize China’s green development aiming at exploring and promoting practices and experiences in low-carbon construction during industrialization and urbanization.Therefore,an objective assessment of the effects of low-carbon pilot policies in provinces is conducive to the better accumulation and promotion of low-carbon construction experience at the provincial level,and to the comprehensive promotion of the green process and ecological civilization construction.Based on the panel data of 26 provinces in China during 2000-2017,this paper adopted the synthetic control method to analyze and assess the net carbon emission reduction effects of pilot policies in 6‘low-carbon provinces’including Liaoning,Guangdong,Shaanxi,Hubei,Yunnan and Hainan from the perspective of per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity.Moreover,this paper employed the placebo test and difference-in-differences(DID)estimation,which contributed to a complementary analysis,to check the robustness of effects of pilot policies.The study found that under the pilot policies of low-carbon provinces,the per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity in Liaoning and Hubei both decreased significantly,that is,the policy effect was both effective.Per capita carbon emissions in Guangdong and Yunnan fell significantly,and the changes in carbon intensity in these two provinces were not due to low-carbon pilot policies.The low-carbon pilot had no impact on the carbon emissions in Shaanxi and Hainan.Instead,the two provinces’carbon intensity and Shaanxi’s per capita carbon emissions increased significantly.Therefore,the heterogeneity of net carbon emission reduction effect among these provinces was caused by the following four factors:①The lower the proportion of industry in GDP,the more conducive it was for per capita carbon emission control;the higher the provincial economic level,the higher the per capita GDP,and the more conducive it was to carbon intensity control.②The superposition of carbon emissions trading pilot policies on low-carbon pilot provinces and cities reduced carbon emission effectively.③Before the implementation of related policies,the lower the per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity index of the provinces,the smaller the carbon emission reduction space and the greater the difficulty of carbon emission reduction.④In the long run,the inertia effect of economic growth and industrial structure optimization would promote carbon emission reduction.On the basis of these findings,the following suggestions are proposed:At the provincial level,low-carbon industries should be rationally distributed,especially the tertiary industry with low energy consumption and carbon emissions,to effectively reduce energy consumption;provinces with high per capita carbon emissions and carbon intensity should be encouraged to take the lead in carbon emission reduction;fiscal and technical support for less developed provinces should be enhanced for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction;the construction and improvement of national carbon emissions permits trading market should be accelerated to form a long-term low-carbon development mechanism and to achieve a harmonious and win-win situation of ecological and economic growth.