福建省森林丧失的时空格局演化及其驱动力机制

Spatial-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Forest Loss in Fujian Province,China

人为活动对森林覆盖变化的干扰作用严重威胁生态系统服务功能的维持机制,对森林覆盖变化的长期监测成为研究热点。本文以福建省为例,基于变异系数法和探索性空间数据分析法,分别从时间和空间维度对其2001—2017年的森林丧失动态进行了系统地分析,利用逐步回归法确定森林丧失主要驱动因子,借助地理加权回归模型对森林丧失驱动力影响的空间分异特征进行了探索。结果表明:(1)2001—2017年福建省森林丧失面积和丧失率均呈现上升的趋势;(2)福建省森林丧失存在显著的空间差异性,即具有较强的空间集聚特征,森林丧失面积热点主要位于闽北,而森林丧失率热点位于闽南;(3)福建省森林丧失面积的显著影响因素为通车里程与第二产业产值,而森林丧失率的显著影响因素为通车里程与农村居民可支配收入;(4)公路通车里程与森林丧失面积和森林丧失率之间为正相关的区域均集中在闽北与闽东,并表现出扩张的趋势;第二产业产值与森林丧失面积的负相关区域由闽中部向闽西部和闽南部等区域扩张,影响范围逐渐扩大;可支配收入对闽北区域森林丧失率的正相关影响变弱,且回归系数由正相关转变为负相关,而对闽南区域的正相关影响范围扩大,对闽中区域的负相关影响范围扩大。本文监测森林丧失的动态变化对森林可持续发展具有重要研究意义,结论可为减少森林丧失、促进森林生态与社会经济的协调稳定发展提供科学依据。

Human interferences have a profound impact on the maintenance of forest ecosystem services,which makes it a global research focus in the long-term monitoring of forest change.Taking Fujian Province as a case,the methods of variation coefficient analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)were employed to examine forest loss dynamics from 2001 to 2017.Then,the geographically weighted regression(GWR)model was employed to explore the spatial variation in the driving pattern of forest loss,with the selection of independent variables by stepwise regression.The results showed that:(1)Both the area and rate of the forest loss in Fujian increased from 2001 to 2017;(2)There was a significantly spatial variability in the forest loss.The hotspots of the loss area were in northern Fujian,while the hotspots of the loss rate were in southern Fujian.(3)The forest loss area was significantly correlated with the variables of the vehicle mileage and the secondary industry value,while the forest loss rate was significantly related with the variables of the vehicle mileage and the rural residents’disposable income;(4)The positive relationships of the vehicle mileage and the forest loss area/rate were located in the north of and the east of Fujian,and presented an extension trend;the negative correlations between the secondary industry value and the forest loss were distributed range from the central to the west and the south of Fujian,with an increasing trend;moreover,the decreasing influence of the disposable income on the forest loss rate was observed in northern Fujian,with the correlation changing from positive to negative;while the positively impact scale of the disposable income on the forest loss rate increased in the southern Fujian,the negative effect area of the disposable income on the forest loss rate enlarged in the central Fujian.