油气资源供给能力约束下未来中国煤炭资源开采总量控制指标测度

Measurement of the Total Control Amount of China's Coal Resource Exploitation in the Future under the Constraints of Oil and Gas Resource Supply Capacity

论文以学者对中国经济发展阶段的判断为基础,结合国内外能源结构演进和发展的脉络,分析了未来中国能源结构转型的基本态势。之后,以国际能源署和BP公司的能源统计和能源展望资料为基础,分析了未来中国国内油气资源的生产能力以及海外油气资源的供给情况。在汇集了相关宏观经济参数的前提下,结合历史数据拟合出未来一次能源需求总量预期值,进而劈分出未来煤炭资源开采总量控制指标——2025年为38.09亿吨;2030年在基准情景下为36.86亿吨,在低增长情景下则下调到33.19亿吨。

Based on the analysis of China's economic development stage by scholars,and combined with the evolution and development of domestic and foreign energy structure,this thesis analyzes the basic trend of China's energy structure transformation in the future.Then,based on the energy statistics and energy outlook data of the International Energy Agency and BP,this thesis analyzes the future production capacity of China's domestic oil and gas resources,as well as the supply of overseas oil and gas resources.Under the premise of pooling the relevant macroeconomic parameters,and combined with historical data to match the total energy demand expectations for the future,the thesis splits the total control amount of coal resources mining in the future—3.809 billion tons in 2025;3.686 billion tons in the benchmark scenario in 2030,and down to 3.319 billion tons in the low growth scenario.