2008-2018年云南省人间布鲁菌病流行特征及灰色GM(1,1)模型预测

Epidemiological characteristics of brucellosis in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2018 and prediction of grey GM(1,1)model

目的分析云南省布鲁菌病(简称布病)流行特征,建立灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测云南省布病病情。方法收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统和云南省统计局2008-2018年云南省布病疫情数据和人口资料,分析布病流行病学特征(包括时间、地区、人群分布),并以灰色GM(1,1)模型进行建模,预测2019、2020年云南省布病发病率。结果2008-2018年云南省共报告布病病例1216例,年均发病率为0.2374/10万,呈逐年递增趋势(χ^(2)趋势=843.34,P<0.01)。病例报告主要集中在3-9月份,占总病例数的69.41%(844/1216)。病例报告数居前5位的州市分别为红河州(289例)、曲靖市(264例)、昆明市(258例)、大理州(160例)、玉溪市(134例),占总病例数的90.87%(1105/1216)。职业以农民为主,占79.03%(961/1216)。建立灰色GM(1,1)模型预测2019、2020年云南省布病发病率分别为0.4876/10万和0.4817/10万。结论云南省布病发病较以往上升,应对重点地区、重点人群进行针对性防控,并对预测结果进行前瞻性评价,逐步完善云南省布病预测模型。

Objective To discover the epidemic characteristics of brucellosis in Yunnan Province,and establish a grey GM(1,1)model to predict brucellosis in Yunnan Province.Methods The epidemic data of incidence rate of brucellosis and population data in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2018 were collected from China Disease Prevention and Control Information System and Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Statistics.Epidemiological characteristics(including time,area and population distributions)were analyzed,and grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the incidence of brucellosis in Yunnan Province in 2019 and 2020.Results A total of 1216 brucellosis cases were reported in Yunnan Province from 2008 to 2018,with an average annual incidence rate of 0.2374/100000,showing an increasing trend year by year(χ^(2)trend=843.34,P<0.01).Case reports were mainly from March to September,accounted for 69.41%(844/1216)of the total number of cases.The top five regions with case reports were Honghe(289 cases),Qujing(264 cases),Kunming(258 cases),Dali(160 cases),and Yuxi(134 cases),accounting for 90.87%(1105/1216).The occupation was mainly farmers,accounting for 79.03%(961/1216).A grey GM(1,1)model was established to predict the incidence of brucellosis in Yunnan Province in 2019 and 2020,which was 0.4876/100000 and 0.4817/100000,respectively.Conclusion The incidence of brucellosis in Yunnan Province has increased compared with that of the past,and targeted prevention and control should be carried out in key areas and key populations,and the prediction results should be prospectively evaluated to gradually improve the establishment of brucellosis prediction model in Yunnan Province.