中国重大事故灾害时空分布特征及危险性评价

The Temporal-Spatial Distributions and Risk Assessment of Major Accident Disasters in China

事故灾害时空分布特征分析与危险性评价是城市公共管理的基础,有助于推进我国城市可持续发展规划,并有效指导政策实践。本文基于GIS空间分析与统计方法,使用2000—2016年我国重大事故灾害频次、人员伤亡和直接经济损失数据,在地级市尺度上分析了我国重大事故灾害时空分布特征,并对四种事故灾害(火灾爆炸事故、建筑施工事故、交通运输事故、工矿企业事故)进行危险性分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2016年,我国重大事故灾害整体呈现波动下降的趋势,月季变化特征明显。(2)从集聚特征看,除建筑施工事故表现为负相关关系外,其余三类事故灾害在空间上总体存在正相关性,空间集聚特征明显。(3)基于事故灾害综合危险分析结果可知,重大事故灾害在重庆市、天津市、云南省曲靖市以及江西省宜春市高值比较集中,城市存在严重的事故灾害危险。

The analysis of the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of accident disasters and the risk assessment are the foundation of urban public management,and effectively guiding policy practices.Based on GIS spatial analysis and geostatistical methods,using the accident frequency,casualties,and direct economic loss data from 2000 to 2016,and carried out risk assessment of 4 types of accidents.The results show that:(1)From 2000 to 2016,the occurrence of major accident disasters showed a downward trend as a whole,and the rose season had obvious characteristics.(2)From the perspective of agglomeration characteristics,except for construction accidents,the performance is negative.(3)Based on the results of the comprehensive risk analysis of accident disasters,it can be seen that major accidents are concentrated in Chongqing City,Tianjin City,Qujing City of Yunnan Province and Yichun City of Jiangxi Province,and serious accident hazards exist in cities.