ARIMA组合模型在地区降水量预测中的应用

Application of ARIMA combined model in regional precipitation forecast

传统的ARIMA模型和马尔科夫模型在降水量预测中具有一定的偏差和不稳定性,为此建立了基于加权马尔科夫链修正的ARIMA组合模型.阐述ARIMA模型,并讨论了加权马尔科夫链修正预测值的方法.在此基础上,构建出基于加权马尔科夫链修正的ARIMA组合模型,将其应用于地区降水量的预测中,并利用相关数据进行实证分析.将组合模型和传统ARIMA模型的预测结果进行对比,结果表明,加权马尔科夫链对ARIMA模型预测结果的修正效果较好,从而说明组合模型的适用性更强.

The traditional ARIMA model and Markov model have certain deviations and instabilities in precipitation prediction.For this reason,an ARIMA combined model based on weighted Markov chain correction is established.The ARIMA model is explained,and the method of weighted Markov chain to correct the predicted value is discussed.On this basis,an ARIMA combination model based on weighted Markov chain correction is constructed,which is applied to the prediction of regional precipitation,and relevant data is used for empirical analysis.Further,the prediction results of the combined model and the traditional ARIMA model are compared,and the results show that the weighted Markov chain has a better correction effect on the prediction results of the ARIMA model,which shows that the combined model is more applicable.