城市水土资源利用碳排放系统动力学仿真研究——以天津市为例

Simulation of carbon emission system of urban water and land resources utilization based on system dynamics model:a case of Tianjin

为实现城市低碳可持续发展,分析土地利用、水资源利用、经济发展、人口增长及能源消费与城市碳排放的相互反馈机制,以构建城市水土资源利用碳排放模型。利用系统动力学建模方法,构建城市水土资源利用碳排放系统动力学模型,模拟预测天津市水土资源利用碳排放量变化趋势,分析不同因素对水土资源利用碳排放量的影响,设置并对比不同综合减排方案的减排效果。结果表明:构建的城市水土资源利用碳排放模型有效;若系统按现有趋势发展,天津市水土资源净碳排放量在2020—2030年将保持逐年上升趋势;经济快速发展、人口加速增长能显著提高水土资源利用碳排放量,土地利用结构优化、产业结构优化、产业能源效率提升是实现水土资源利用减排的有效途径,产业节水发展对减少城市水土资源利用碳排放作用较小,但由于水资源是城市发展的限制性因素,仍应引起足够重视;在水资源约束和经济稳步发展的前提下,通过实施水土资源利用碳排放综合调控方案,天津于2025年左右水土资源利用碳排放达峰。未来城市发展应主动优化土地利用结构和产业结构,推动产业实现低碳绿色发展,同时重视水资源底线的约束作用。

For low-carbon sustainable development,the paper intends to introduce a carbon emission model of urban water and land resources utilization,based on the interaction mechanism of land use,water resources utilization,economic development,population growth,energy consumption,and urban carbon emissions.Based on the system dynamics model,we built a dynamics model for urban water and land resources utilization carbon emission system and did an operation test,history test,and sensitivity analysis of the model.Then we simulated and forecasted the changing trend of carbon emissions of water and land resources utilization in Tianjin.The impacts of different factors on carbon emissions of water and land resources utilization were also analyzed.Moreover,we set up five comprehensive control schemes and compared the emission reduction effects of each scheme.The results show that the model is valid.If the current trend continues,the net carbon emissions of water and land resources of Tianjin will keep increasing from 2020 to 2030.Accelerating economic development and population growth can significantly increase carbon emissions of water and land resources utilization.Adjusting land use structure,optimizing industrial structure,and promoting industrial energy efficiency are effective ways to reduce carbon emissions of water and land resources utilization.Industrial water-saving development plays a small role in reducing carbon emissions of urban water and land resources utilization.However,due to water resources being a limiting factor of urban development,enough attention should be paid to it.In consideration of water resources constraint and economic development,Tianjin can achieve the peak of carbon emission of water and land resources utilization by 2025 through implementing a comprehensive control scheme.To achieve low-carbon sustainable development in Tianjin,the low-carbon development of industries should be promoted.Land use structure,industrial structure,and energy structure should be optimized.More attention should be paid to the binding role of water resources.