路网抗震可靠性及震后运输调度路径选择研究

Seismic Reliability of Road Network and Route Selection ofPost-Earthquake Transportation

道路交通网络在地震作用下会出现一定程度的结构损坏和功能失效,对震后运输调度路径选择产生了影响。为研究路网的抗震可靠性及震后运输调度的路径选择问题,以路网连通概率作为衡量路网抗震可靠性的指标,将贝叶斯网络理论应用于路网形态特征之中,构建量化路网抗震可靠性的贝叶斯网络模型并求解。将震后运输调度路径选择视作多属性决策问题,综合考虑运输时间、运输距离及路径可靠性这3种属性,构建运输调度路径选择的决策效用函数模型,对模型求解确定震后运输调度的路径选择方案。以宿迁市宿城区部分路网为实例,在设定地震影响下,定量分析路网抗震可靠性,选择震后运输调度路径。

The road traffic network will have a certain degree of structural damage and functional failure under the earthquake,which has an impact on the selection of transportation scheduling path after the earthquake.In order to study the seismic reliability of road network and the selection of transportation scheduling path after the earthquake,the connection probability of the road network was taken as the index to measure the seismic reliability of the road network,the Bayesian network was applied to the morphological characteristics of road network,and the Bayesian network model to quantify the seismic reliability of road network was constructed and solved.Taking post-earthquake transportation scheduling path selection as a multi-attribute decision making problem,a decision utility function model of transportation scheduling path selection was constructed by taking three attributes into consideration,such as transportation time,transportation distance and path reliability.By solving the proposed model,the post-earthquake transportation scheduling path selection scheme was determined.Taking part of the road network in Sucheng district of Suqian as an example,the seismic reliability of the road network was quantitatively analyzed under the influence of the earthquake,and the post-earthquake transportation scheduling path was selected.