中国的保险发展:重要特征性事实与解释

Insurance Development in China:Important Stylized Facts and Explanations

理解保险产品的理论属性对确立一个国家的保险市场发展阶段至关重要。本文基于不完全市场理论和保险市场均衡视角,利用2008—2018年人身保险公司和1998—2018年财产保险公司在中国31个省份经营的分险种微观数据,通过构建高维固定效应面板数据回归模型,首次采用稳健的实证方法检验了中国保险市场各险种的发展效果,发现了一些保险产品需求、供给和市场均衡层面的重要特征性事实。回归结果表明,对数人均GDP对各险种深度有着显著影响。各险种需求收入弹性的异质性分析表明,中国保险市场上高档品、必需品和低档品并存,这拓宽了保险需求理论关于Mossin悖论的解释;人身和财产保险公司在险种供给的质和量上存在一些差异;各险种的产品属性与其在地区、公司和时间维度的异质性存在着规律性特征。本研究对理解中国保险市场由高速增长阶段向高质量发展阶段转变,引导保险行业更好地探索社会服务领域的险种创新和结构优化,形成多层次、广覆盖和有差异的保险机构体系具有重要的政策含义。

Understanding the theoretical attributes of insurance products is very important to determine the stage of a country's insurance market development.Based on the incomplete market theory and perspective of insurance market equilibrium,the paper uses the micro data of insurance including both branches of life insurance companies from 2008 to 2018 and property insurance companies from 1998 to 2018 in 31 provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions of China,and first constructs a high-dimensional fixed effect panel data regression model to test the development effect of various types of insurance in China's insurance market with a robust empirical method,and finds some important stylized facts on the level of demand,supply and market equilibrium of insurance products.The regression results show that logarithmic per capita GDP has a significant impact on various types of insurance penetration.The heterogeneity analysis of income elasticity of various types of insurance demand shows that expensive goods,necessity goods and inferior goods coexist in China's insurance market,which broadens the explanation of Mossin paradox in insurance demand theory;there are also obvious differences in the quality and quantity of insurance supply between life insurance companies and property insurance companies;there are regularity characteristics in the product attributes of various types of insurance and their heterogeneity in region,company and time dimensions.This research has important policy implications for understanding the transformation of China's insurance market from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage,guiding the insurance industry to better explore insurance innovation and structural optimization in the field of social services,and to form a multi-level,wide coverage and differentiated insurance institution system.