人口数目估计的多来源方法

Multiple-Source Methods for Population Estimation

作为非政府统计机构在履行其行政职能时所形成的行政记录在人口数目估计中有广泛的应用.在非人口普查年,用人口行政记录资料与人口抽样调查资料构造的双来源估计量,能避免现行双来源估计量估计人口数的偏差问题;在普查年,用两个统计调查资料和一个行政记录资料构造的三来源估计量比较好地解决了只依据前两者构造的双来源估计量高估或低估人口数目的问题.在构造双来源估计量或三来源估计量时,必须先构造覆盖人口总体范围广的行政记录来源系统,而这需要组合不同来源的行政记录资料,并剔除其中的重复人口记录.

The administrative records,which are obtained from some non-governmental statistical agency when performing its administrative functions,are widely used in population estimation.In non-census years,the dual-source estimator constructed by population administrative records and population sampling survey data can avoid the problem of biased population estimates with the current dual-source estimate;In the census year,the triple-source estimator constructed by two statistical survey data and one administrative record data can solve the problem of overestimating or underestimating the population based on the dual-source estimator constructed only by the former two data.When constructing dual-source estimator or triple-source estimator,it is necessary to construct administrative record sources covering a wide range of population,which requires combining administrative records from different sources and eliminating duplicate population records.