基于ARIMA模型国际石油价格的分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast of International Oil Price Based on ARIMA Model

石油是世界工业、经济发展的重要支柱,我国作为石油进口大国,经济运行会受到国际石油价格波动的影响。因此,研究国际油价波动规律对国家调控石油市场、制定能源政策具有重要意义。论文以2000-2021年国际石油价格为依据建立ARIMA预测模型,将预测结果与定性分析结合,对2021年2月中旬到4月末的国际石油价格趋势进行预测,结果表明短期内该模型预测良好,具有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。

Oil is an important pillar of the world's industrial and economic development.As a big oil importer,China's economic operation will be affected by the fluctuation of international oil prices.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the international oil price fluctuation law for the country to regulate the oil market and formulate energy policies.Based on the international oil price from 2000 to 2021,this paper establishes ARIMA forecasting model,and combines the forecasting results with qualitative analysis to forecast the international oil price trend from mid-February to the end of April,2021.The results show that the model has a good forecast in the short term,which has certain reference value and significance.