低碳城市试点对城市绿色全要素生产率增长的影响及效应

Influence and effect of China’s pilot low-carbon city initiative on urban green total factor productivity growth

研究尝试将绿色全要素生产率为主要表征的城市经济高质量发展纳入低碳城市试点政策评估框架,评估低碳城市试点对城市绿色全要素生产率增长的影响,以及制造业集聚、生产性服务业集聚、制造业-生产性服务业协同集聚等产业集聚与低碳试点政策对城市绿色全要素生产率增长的共同影响机制。将低碳城市试点政策作为一项准自然实验,采集2005-2018年中国221个地级及以上城市面板数据,利用双重差分模型和系统GMM估计方法,实证检验低碳城市试点政策对城市绿色全要素生产率增长的影响及效应。研究结果表明:低碳城市试点政策显著促进了城市绿色全要素生产率增长,但这一效应在不同地区呈现出典型异质性;在东部试点城市显著为正,而在中、西部试点城市显著为负。将城市绿色全要素生产率分解为城市绿色技术进步和技术效率后发现,低碳城市试点政策对城市技术效率和城市绿色技术进步的作用均较为显著。分地区检验后发现,低碳城市试点政策对东部试点城市绿色技术进步的影响显著为正,而对技术效率的影响不明显;对中部试点城市的绿色技术进步影响显著为正,而对技术效率的影响显著为负;对西部试点城市的技术效率影响显著为负,而对绿色技术进步的影响不显著。分批检验发现,三批试点均在不同程度上显著促进了试点城市的绿色全要素生产率增长,三批试点成效呈现为先增大后降低的“倒U型”特征。制造业集聚、生产性服务业集聚、制造业-生产性服务业协同集聚等产业集聚与低碳试点政策的协同或交互,均在不同程度上显著促进了试点城市绿色全要素生产率的增长。研究在理论上有助于丰富或完善中国低碳城市试点政策的绩效评估框架,克服以往大多研究单纯强调碳减排效应而淡化经济增长效率的思维路径依赖;在实践上也有助于回应中国政府致力于经济增长与生态环境保护协调发展的政策主张,为调整或完善低碳试点城市环境保护与保增长的协同政策框架提供经验证据。

This paper attempts to put the high-quality development of urban economy characterized by green total factor productivity into the evaluation framework of China’s pilot low-carbon city initiative,and evaluate the impact of this initiative on urban green total factor productivity growth and the moderating effect of industrial agglomeration(such as manufacturing agglomeration,producer services agglomeration,manufacturing producer services collaborative agglomeration)and the initiative on urban green total factor productivity growth.Taking the pilot low-carbon city initiative as a quasi-natural experiment,this paper collected the panel data of 221 cities in China from 2005 to 2018,and used the difference-in-differences model and system GMM estimation method to empirically test the impact of the pilot low-carbon city initiative on urban green total factor productivity growth.The results showed that:the initiative significantly promoted the growth of urban green total factor productivity,but this effect showed typical heterogeneity in different regions;it was significantly positive in the eastern pilot cities,and significantly negative in the central and western pilot cities.After decomposing urban green total factor productivity into urban green technological progress and technical efficiency,this study found that the pilot low-carbon city initiative had a significant effect on urban technical efficiency and urban green technological development.After the regional test,it was found that the impact of the initiative on the green technology progress of the eastern pilot cities was significantly positive,but the impact on the technical efficiency was not obvious;the impact of the initiative on green technology progress of central pilot cities was significantly positive,while the impact on technical efficiency was significantly negative;the impact of the initiative on the technical efficiency of western pilot cities was significantly negative,while the impact on green technology progress was not significant.The results also showed that the three batches of pilot cities had significantly promoted the growth of green total factor productivity in varying degrees,and the effect of the three batches of pilot cities showed an inverted U-shaped feature of first increasing and then decreasing.The synergy or interaction of manufacturing agglomeration,producer services agglomeration,manufacturing producer services collaborative agglomeration and low-carbon pilot policy considerably promoted the growth of green total factor productivity of pilot cities in varying degrees.This research is theoretically helpful to enrich or improve the performance evaluation framework of China’s pilot low-carbon city initiative,and overcomes the mental path dependence of most previous studies that simply emphasized the effect of carbon emission reduction and downplayed the efficiency of economic growth.In practice,this research also helps to respond to the Chinese government’s policy propositions for the coordinated development of economic growth and ecological environmental protection and provides empirical evidence for adjusting or improving the coordinated policy framework for environmental protection and growth in low-carbon pilot cities.