基于分位回归计量模型的区域经济差异分析

Analysis of Regional Economic Differences Based on the Quantile Regression Measurement Model

利用泰尔指数的计算和分解,考察了中国省际及区域经济发展水平的总体差异及区域内和区域间差异;利用分位数回归计量模型实证分析了资本、人力、经济流动及经济制度要素的差异对区域经济差异的影响。结果发现:省际间经济发展的差异性呈现出先增大再减小的变化趋势,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源,但5个区域内部差异近年来也在不断增长;4类要素的差异对省际总体、区域间和区域内经济发展差异产生了显著的影响;产业结构、人力资本对总体、区域间和区域内差异产生了较大的影响;工业化水平的差异对区域内的经济发展差异也起到了相对重要的作用。

Using the calculation and decomposition of the Theil index,this article examines the overall differences in China's provincial and regional economic development levels,as well as the intra-regional and inter-regional differences.It uses quantile regression measurement models to empirically analyze the impact of differences in capital,human resources,economic flows and economic system elements on the regional economy.The results show that:the differences in economic development among provinces show a tendency of first increasing and then decreasing,and the inter-regional differences are the main source of overall differences,but the differences within the five regions have also been increasing in recent years;the differences in the four types of factors have a significant impact on the overall,inter-regional and intra-regional differences in economic development;the industrial structure and human capital also has a greater impact on these differences;the level of industrialization plays a relatively important role in intra-regional development.