基于生命周期风险图的设备检修策略优化

Optimization of Equipment Maintenance Strategy Based on Life Cycle Risk Diagram

为提高设备检修策略优化的科学性,考虑检修策略对设备故障率和系统经济风险的动态影响,提出了生命周期风险图的概念,该图表征了一定检修策略支撑下系统风险随设备老化的变化趋势、刻画了经济寿命和可接受风险区间。在此基础上,建立了检修成本影响状态年龄、故障率和运维成本的函数关系,并以包括投资、运维和检修的全寿命周期成本平均值最小为目标,以可接受风险水平为约束,建立了检修次数和检修时间的优化决策模型,采用枚举和遗传算法联合进行模型求解。以区域电网变压器设备检修优化为例,验证了所提方法和模型的有效性。

In order to improve the scientificity of equipment maintenance strategy optimization,we considered the dynamic impact of maintenance strategy on equipment failure rate and system economic risk.The concept of life cycle risk graph was proposed.The change trend of system risk with equipment aging under the support of certain maintenance strategy was represented by the life cycle risk graph,and the economic life and acceptable risk range were depicted.Based on the life risk graph,the functional relationships between maintenance cost and state age,failure rate and operation cost were established.Taking the minimum average life cycle cost including investment,operation and maintenance as the objective,and the acceptable risk level as the constraint,the optimization decision model of overhaul times and maintenance time was established.The model was solved by the combination of enumeration and genetic algorithm.The effectiveness of the proposed method and model is verified by an example of transformer maintenance optimization in regional power grid.