碳达峰视角下的中国地级以上城市碳排放与经济发展相关性研究

Research on the Relationship Between Urban Carbon Emissions and Economic Development of China From the Perspective of Carbon Peak

【目的/意义】统筹经济高质量增长和城市低碳发展,对我国碳达峰目标进行进一步的分解,并制定详细碳减排和经济产业发展政策。【设计/方法】以城市为单位,对中国城市碳排放量和碳达峰影响因素进行定量分析,构建环境库兹涅茨曲线模型进行稳健回归分析来说明中国城市碳排放量与经济高质量发展之间的关系,并分析中国碳交易市场试点能否促进城市碳达峰,然后通过分样本回归显示中国城市在碳达峰路径上存在巨大的异质性。【结论/发现】准确识别出工业能源、交通运输、农业、农村和城镇生活等碳达峰重点控制行业和部门。提出中国应加快启动全国碳市场,全面发挥碳减排市场机制。制定碳达峰政策应注重区域针对性,要重点扶持中西部中小城市的绿色低碳发展。

[Purpose/Significance]To Coordinate high-quality economic growth and low-carbon urban development,and further decompose China’s objective of carbon peak,detailed policies for carbon emission reduction and industrial development are designed.[Design/Methodology]Using the city-level carbon emissions data,a quantitative analysis is conducted on the factors influencing the carbon emissions and the carbon peak of China.A model of the Environmental Kuznets Curve is used for robust regression analysis to illustrate the relationship between urban carbon emissions and high-quality economic development,and to analyze whether China’s carbon market pilot can promote the carbon peak.Then,the sub-sample regression shows that there is great heterogeneity in the path of carbon peak in Chinese cities.[Findings/Conclusions]Key industries and sectors such as industrial energy,transportation,agriculture,rural and urban life,for carbon control are accurately identified.China should speed up the launch of the national carbon market and give full play to the market mechanism of carbon reduction.The policies of carbon peak should be regional targeting,and support the green and low-carbon development of small and medium-sized cities in the central and western regions.