拉美左翼崛起与油气对外合作政策风险探析

The rise of the left wing in Latin America and the risk of foreign oil and gas cooperation policy

拉美政治风向标忽左忽右地摇摆是一种常见现象,近年拉美多国经济持续衰退、贫富差距扩大、防疫不力和腐败丑闻频出,导致右翼政府公信力下降,2018年以来,拉美左翼力量呈现复苏态势。如果拉美左翼势力大规模崛起,在其执政理念和现实经济压力的双重作用及左翼强势领导人推动下,国家干预经济、国有化和大规模社会运动等政策可能相继出台,加之国家间的传导效应,拉美地区可能会出现新一轮的对外合作政策收紧甚至国有化风险。中国石油企业需做好形势跟踪分析和风险评估,采取适当措施,降低可能的风险。重点关注政策可能发生变化的国家,分国施策;在巴西采取跟随大公司的策略;在厄瓜多尔采取联合加周旋的策略;认真履行现有合同。

It is a common phenomenon that the political weather vane in Latin America swings from left to right.Due to the continuous economic recession,the widening gap between the rich and the poor,the ineffective pandemic prevention,and the frequent corruption scandals in many Latin American countries,the credibility of the right-wing government has declined.Since2018,the left wing of Latin America has showed a recovery trend.If the left-wing forces in Latin America rise on a large scale,such policies as state intervention in the economy,nationalization,and large-scale social movement may be introduced one after another under the dual effect of their ruling ideals and actual economic pressures,and driven by strong left-wing leaders.Coupled with the transmission effect among these countries,there may be a new round of foreign cooperation policy tightening and even nationalization risks in Latin America.Chinese oil companies need to do a good job of situation tracking analysis and risk assessment and take adequate measures to mitigate possible risks.The measures may include focusing on countries where policies may change,implementing policies by country,adopting a strategy of following big companies in Brazil,taking a strategy of combining and dealing with each other in Ecuador,and earnestly fulfilling existing contracts.