中国省级碳排放趋势及差异化达峰路径

Carbon emission trend analysis of China’s provinces and their differentiated peak strategy design

从区域层面贯彻落实达峰行动,推动发达地区率先达峰是中国实现2030年前达峰目标的有效途径。该研究基于层次聚类方法分析了中国省级区域的碳排放趋势,将31个省份基于经济发展、产业结构、能源消费和排放特征等异质性划分为5类,并结合各省的达峰行动进度对各自面临的达峰形势进行了分析,给出了差异化的达峰行动路径。研究发现,31个省份中已有7个成为碳排放与GDP增长脱钩的达峰示范省,另有10个正在脱钩的低碳潜力省、9个待脱钩的工业转型期省份、3个能源基地省和2个低碳转型初期的省份。这些省份的行动进度也呈现较多共性:①达峰示范省大部分宣告明确的达峰目标年份并宣称有望提前实现;②低碳潜力省的低碳试点城市数量最多,排放覆盖率也高;③较多重工业转型期省份提出了明确达峰目标,但城市层面的目标力度较为缺乏;④能源基地省和低碳转型初期省的省级和城市层面的力度均有所欠缺。文章给出如下政策建议:①对于经济发达、基本完成低碳转型的达峰示范省,建议面向碳中和愿景,充分发挥示范效应,引领需求侧低碳转型;②对于经济增长迅速、同时还没有形成高耗能行业路径依赖的低碳潜力省,建议以低碳城市规划为抓手,着力构建低碳产业体系,发展绿色经济;③对于重工业比重较高,亟待低碳转型的重工业转型期省份,建议加强城市层面的行动落实,同时加强传统工业的低碳升级改造;④对于能源基地型省份,建议因地制宜建立低碳能源供应体系;⑤对于低碳转型初期省份,建议协调好生态屏障保护与经济发展的关系,发展生态旅游等绿色低碳产业,提升生态系统碳汇能力。

Implementing carbon emissions peaking actions at the provincial level and encouraging the developed regions to peak first are effective ways for China to achieve the carbon emission peak target by 2030.Based on the hierarchical clustering method,this study analyzed the carbon emission trends of each province in China's Mainland,and divided 31 provinces into 5 categories according to their varying economic development,industrial structure,energy consumption and emission characteristics,as well as each province’s peaking action progress.The situation of their peaking actions was analyzed,and the differentiated peaking action strategies were given.The study found that 7 out of 31 provinces had achieved the decoupling of carbon emissions and GDP growth and become carbon emission peaking pioneering provinces;10 provinces with low-carbon potential were in the process of decoupling;9 provinces in industrial transition,3 energy-base provinces and 2 provinces in the early stage of low-carbon transition had not achieved the decoupling.These provinces also had much in common in terms of action progress:(1)Most of the peaking pioneering provinces set up a clear peak year and were expected to meet the target ahead of schedule;(2)The provinces with low-carbon potential had the largest number of low-carbon pilot cities,and their emission coverage was also high;(3)In the heavy industry transition period,many provinces had put forward clear inter-provincial peak goals,but they relatively lacked city-level targets;(4)The last two types of provinces also lacked targets at the provincial and city levels.Based on the previous analysis,this article gives the following policy recommendations:(1)The peaking pioneering provinces with a developed economy and basically completed the low-carbon transition should serve as a demonstration for provincial carbon peaking actions,and take a lead in demand-side low-carbon transition with a vision towards carbon neutrality goal;(2)Provinces with low-carbon potential that are experiencing rapid economic growth and have not yet formed a path dependence on high-energyconsuming industries should take low-carbon city planning as a grip,focus on building a low-carbon industrial system,and develop a green economy;(3)Provinces with a high proportion of heavy industries that are in need of a low-carbon transition should strengthen the implementation of city-level actions while enhancing the low-carbon upgrading and transformation of traditional industries;(4)The energy-base provinces should establish a low-carbon energy supply system depending on local conditions;(5)Provinces in the early stage of low-carbon transition should coordinate the relationship between ecological barrier protection and economic development,develop green low-carbon industries such as ecotourism,and enhance the carbon sink capacity of ecosystems.