基于DIIM的经济系统关联型损失评估——以新冠肺炎疫情对中国的影响为例

Impacts of COVID-19 on China's Economic System Based on Dynamic Inoperability Input-output Model

着眼于国民经济相互关联的复杂结构,细致准确地评估疫情影响,对疫后经济恢复和发展具有重要意义。采用动态非正常程度投入产出模型(DIIM)测算中国42部门对疫情冲击的敏感性程度和经济损失情况,分析疫情影响的阶段性特征。结果表明:各部门基于相互依赖性和恢复力特征的非正常程度波动差异明显;化学产品、金属冶炼和压延加工品、交通运输设备等部门受关联效应和波及效应影响更显著,显示出疫情经济损失的延迟性特点;在乐观、中性和悲观3种预期下,在疫情发生后330天节点,各部门累计经济损失分别为16.40、17.51和19.08万亿元。研究为量化分析疫情影响提供了一种视角,并补充了各行业经济损失的详细信息。在应对此类重大公共卫生事件时,应根据经济系统所受影响程度和阶段性特征分类别分重点地对关键部门进行帮扶,以加快经济的恢复。

It is of great significance to the economie recovery and development of China to accurately assess the impact of COVID-19.The dynamic inoperability input-output model is used to measure the sensitivity and economic losses of 42 sectors in China to the impact of COVID-19 in this paper.The results show that the inoperability and economie loss of each sector vary respectively.Sectors such as chemical products,metal smelting,rolled products,and transportation equipment are more significantly affected by cascade effects,which shows that this kind of economie losses are delayed after the outbreak of COVID-19.In optimisticr neutral,and pessimistic expectations,the cumulative economic losses in China are RMB 16.40,17.51,and 19.08 tilliono Y uan 330 days after the outbreak of COVID-19.This paper provides an additional perspective to quantify the impact of COVID-19 and complements the details of economic losses in different industries.In response to such major publie health events,assistance should be provided to key sectors according to the degree of impact and phased characteristics of the economic system,so as to acelerate the recovery of economy.