国内分布式光伏发展形势分析及思考

Development status analysis and consideration on domestic distributed PV energy

分布式光伏因可开发资源丰富、开发建设难度小、节能环保效益显著等优势,成为光伏开发利用的重要方式之一,并在发达国家和部分发展中国家得以快速发展且已具有一定规模。为了促进国内分布式光伏产业发展,我国制定了一系列鼓励政策,但是现阶段受到补贴政策逐步取消、一般工商业电价下调和建设成本下降趋于平稳等不利因素的影响,导致分布式光伏项目市场竞争力和盈利能力下降,项目开发受到一定程度的影响。通过对项目资本金内部收益率主要影响因素的分析,得出收益率对发电量、电价和投资成本较为敏感,对利率和人工费等敏感性一般,并分别提出针对性控制措施。同时,基于传统的发展模式,提出分布式光伏新发展模式,拟助推分布式光伏产业在新形势下快速、健康发展。

Distributed photovoltaic energy has become one of the important ways of photovoltaic energy development and utilization because of its abundant reserves,convenience in development,energy saving and environmental protection.It is developing rapidly in developed countries and some developing countries and has achieved certain large-scale applications.In order to promote the distributed photovoltaic industry in China,a series of supporting policies have been made.However,the market competitiveness and profitability of distributed photovoltaic projects are reducing.And the development of the projects is affected by the abolishment of subsidy policies,reduction of the general industrial and commercial electricity prices and the stabilization of construction costs.By analyzing the main influencing factors of the internal rate of return(IRR)of the projects,it is concluded that the IRR is sensitive to power generation,electricity price and investment cost,and less sensitive to interest rate and labor cost.The control measures targeted at different cost is proposed respectively.At the same time,based on the traditional development mode,a new development mode of distributed photovoltaic is proposed to boost the healthy development of distributed photovoltaic industry under the new situation.