我国民航对外开放发展能力、成效与趋势研究

Research on the Development Capacity,Performance and Trend of Civil Aviation Opening up in China

民航具有快速、长距离运输的优势,在促进对外交流中扮演着重要角色。为进一步推动我国民航对外开放发展,基于投入-产出视角构建了对外开放发展评价指标体系,系统分析了我国民航对外开放发展的基础能力和成效,并利用情景分析法开展发展趋势预测。研究表明:对外开放的基础能力实现了长足进步,发展成效显著,我国民航未来的对外发展将面临“发展机遇与挑战共存”的局面,在外部不确定性冲击下,2020—2024年运输需求呈现波动性,需积极应对,推动民航高质量发展,以期为民航强国的建设提供有力支撑。

Civil aviation has advantages of fast and long-distance transportation and plays an important role in promoting cultural exchanges with foreign countries.In order to promote external development,this paper systematically analyzes the basic ability and development performance based on the view of input-output and uses scenario analysis to analyze the future trend of civil aviation opening-up in China.Research shows that the basic ability of opening up has made great progress,and has remarkable development results.The international development of civil aviation in China is facing development opportunities with challenges.Under the impact of external uncertainties,transport demand in 2020—2024 will show volatility,so that we need to actively respond and promote the high-quality development of civil aviation in order to provide strong support for the construction of a powerful civil aviation country.