外需冲击对银行资产负债表的影响及应对——基于引入基础货币DSGE模型的分析

The impact of Foreign Exchange Inflow shocks on macro economy and Its Countermeasures:Perspective from a DSGE model

受"逆全球化"思潮抬头和新冠病毒全球大流行双重冲击,我国面临严峻的外部经济形势。面对百年未有之大变局,中央做出加快构建"双循环"新发展格局的战略部署。在新的国际国内大形势下,外需在未来可能出现较大波动,经常项目外汇持续流入的趋势可能发生逆转,央行外汇占款也会相应发生变化,导致银行资产负债表受到冲击,引发金融和经济的共振。本文构建了一个引入基础货币的开放宏观经济DSGE模型,研究了外需冲击对经济和金融的影响,提出了挂钩进出口缺口的数量型和价格型两种货币政策应对工具,并分析了人民币国际化程度与外需冲击影响的关系。模拟分析的结果表明,通过修复银行资产负债表可以有效对冲外汇减少带来的信用收缩,稳定金融系统,保障经济平稳发展。

Under the dual impact of the deteriorating trend of anti-globalization and the global pandemic of coronavirus, China is facing a severe external economic situation. Facing a period of major change that’s rarely seen in a century, the central government has made a strategic decision to speed up a new development pattern of “double circulation”. Under the new international and domestic situation, foreign demand may fluctuate greatly in the future, and the trend of continuous inflow of current account FX may be reversed. The amount of central bank’s FX account will also change, which will deeply influence the balance sheet of banks and thus finance and economy. This paper constructs an open macroeconomic DSGE model embedded with base currency, studies the impact of foreign demand shock on economy and finance, puts forward two monetary policy response tools of quantity type and price type linked to import and export gap, and analyzes the relationship between the degree of RMB internationalization and the impact of foreign demand shock. The results show that repairing the bank balance sheet can effectively hedge the credit contraction caused by the decrease of FX, stabilize the financial system and ensure the stable development of economy.