新冠肺炎疫情背景下波兰、匈牙利对“欧洲化”的偏离——基于欧盟理事会决策的分析

Deviation from Europeanization in Poland and Hungary in the Context of COVID-19——An Analysis Based on the Decisions of the Council of European Union

近年来,尤其是2020年新冠肺炎疫情暴发之后,波兰、匈牙利与欧盟的矛盾有升级态势。在英国逐渐淡出并最终脱离欧盟后,波兰、匈牙利等国的疑欧倾向有所加强,在接受难民、"LGBTQ+"权利、民主、法治等方面与欧盟展开了激烈较量,出现了"波匈轴心"的说法。通过分析波兰、匈牙利在2009—2020年欧盟理事会中的投票情况发现,两国在价值观领域与欧盟的冲突虽然在一定程度上破坏了欧盟团结,给欧盟的民主、法治、司法独立等带来了挑战,但两国与欧盟的冲突仍处于可控范围,并没有出现彻底偏离"欧洲化"的倾向;波兰、匈牙利的疑欧倾向仍属于"软疑欧"范畴;"波匈轴心"并不存在,两国与欧盟的价值观冲突也并未外溢到其他领域或其他国家。

In recent years, especially after the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, Poland and Hungary have seen an escalation of conflicts with the EU. After the UK faded out and eventually left the EU, Poland and Hungary have become more Eurosceptic, engaging in fierce battles with the EU over accepting refugees, LGBTQ+ rights, democracy, and the rule of law. There is even talk about the so-called "Polish-Hungarian Axis". Will the conflicts between Poland/Hungary and the EU lead to a complete departure from "Europeanization", or to what extent will it lead to such departure? Does the "Polish-Hungarian axis" exist? These issues call for a more macroscopic and long-term analysis. Through statistics, analysis, and comparison of the voting results of the Council of European Union of the two countries between 2009 and 2020, the paper attempts to draw an objective and rational conclusion.