湖北省洪涝灾害后血吸虫病传播风险预测分析

Assessment of the predictive effect of schistosomiasis transmission risk along the Yangtze River in Hubei,China after the flood disaster in 2020

目的评估2021年湖北省洪涝灾害后血吸虫病传播的潜在风险,为相应地区血吸虫病防控提供科学依据。方法收集2014—2020湖北省内各血吸虫病流行县(市、区)钉螺分布、人群及家畜血吸虫感染等疫情资料,以及相应水域警戒水位、实际水情等数据。以2014—2020年累计血吸虫病粪检阳性人数和阳性牛数、2020年钉螺分布面积、2021年5月1日至8月31日水位等数据为风险等级评估指标,以各流行县(市、区)为单位计算相应的风险指标累加值,从而综合评估各区域洪涝灾害后血吸虫病的传播风险等级。结果2021年湖北省洪涝灾害发生后,湖北省基于粪检阳性人数单项风险指标的血吸虫病传播高风险流行县(市、区)2个;基于综合风险指标的4级血吸虫病传播风险流行县(市、区)2个。结论2021年汛后湖北省血吸虫病整体以中低流行风险为主,汉江流域的仙桃市和汉川市是受洪涝灾害影响最严重的两个血吸虫病流行市。洪涝灾害会增加血吸虫病的传播和流行风险,应加强汛后血吸虫病的监测与防控,最大限度地控制疾病传播的危害。

Objective To assess the schistosomiasis transmission risk after flood disaster in Hubei Province in 2021,so as to provide a scientific basis for schistosomiasis prevention and control in corresponding areas.Methods The data pertaining to the endemic situation of schistosomiasis were collected from Hubei,including oncomelania snail distribution,and humans and livestock schistosomiasis infection.The warning water level and actual water situation were collected in corresponding water areas.The cumulative numbers of S.japonicum egg-positive people and cattle from 2014 to 2020,the distribution area of oncomelania snail in 2020,and the water levels from May 1 to August 31,2021,were estimated and employed as parameters for classification of schistosomiasis transmission risk.The cumulative value of each risk index was calculated in each epidemic county(city and district)to comprehensively assess the risk of schistosomiasis transmission after flood disaster in each region.Results After the flood disaster in Hubei province in 2021,there were 2 counties(districts)at high risk of schistosomiasis transmission in Hubei based on the single risk index of fecal positive number.Based on comprehensive risk indices,there were 2 counties identified at grade 4 risk of schistosomiasis transmission.Conclusion After the flood in 2021,schistosomiasis in Hubei Province is mainly at low and medium epidemic risk.Xiantao City and Hanchuan City in Hanjiang River Basin are the two most seriously affected schistosomiasis epidemic cities.Flood disasters can increase the risk of schistosomiasis transmission and epidemic,so the monitoring and control of schistosomiasis after flood should be strengthened to control the disease transmission to the maximum extent.