碳排放权交易、损益偏离与绿色经济效率关系研究

Research on the Relationship between Carbon Emission Trading,Profit and Loss Deviation and Green Economy Efficiency

"双碳"目标展现了中国作为负责任的大国,对建设人类命运共同体的担当,碳排放权交易是实现这一目标的重要途径,但其对地区经济与环境的双重影响依然有待检验。结合1997—2017年中国省级数据,采用包含非期望产出的SBM-DEA模型测度地区绿色经济效率,以碳排放权交易试点为准自然实验,运用合成控制法评估试点政策对地区绿色经济效率的影响,并采用空间计量模型从损益偏离视角展开机制检验。研究发现:碳排放权交易试点政策能够显著提升地区经济效率,运用双重差分模型和PSM-DID进行稳健性检验后,基本结论依然可靠。缓解"收益在外,污染在内"的损益偏离现象,是碳排放权交易试点机制提升绿色经济效率的有效途径。随后提出通过进一步完善碳排放权交易市场机制,进而推动我国绿色发展的相关政策启示。

“Double carbon”goal shows that China,as a responsible big country,plays an important role in building a community of shared future for mankind.Carbon emission trading is an important way to achieve this goal,but its dual impact on regional economy and environment remains to be tested.Based on the provincial data of China from 1997 to 2017,this paper uses the SBM-DEA model with undesirable output to measure the efficiency of regional green economy,takes the policy of carbon emissions trading as a quasi-natural experiment,uses the synthetic control method to evaluate the impact of policy on the regional green economy efficiency,and uses the spatial econometric model to carry out the mechanism test from the perspective of profit and loss deviation.The results show that:the carbon emissions trading policy can significantly improve the regional economic efficiency,and the basic conclusion is still reliable after using the DID model and PSM-DID for robustness test.Alleviating the deviation of profit and loss of “profit outside,pollution inside” is an effective way for carbon emission trading to improve regional green economy efficiency.Then some relevant policy enlightenments of further improving the market mechanism of carbon emission trading to promote China’s green development were put forward.