印度外交战略的变与不变:兼论莫迪政府对华进攻性策略选择

The Change and Stability of India's Foreign Strategy and Modi Government's Choice of Offensive Strategy towards China

当前学界关于莫迪政府的外交战略是否颠覆了印度传统外交模式存在不同看法,本文认为莫迪执政后印度的外交实践总体保持在一个延续性的框架内。莫迪政府虽然继承了印度大国梦想传统,但认为印度已经是大国,主要任务是如何维持和利用印度的大国地位。印度战略界一直具有把中国视为重要参考对象的传统,只是不同时期表述有所不同,区别在于中国是被界定为印度的现实威胁还是潜在威胁,或者说印度战略界的分歧在于中国是哪种性质的威胁以及应该如何应对所谓的“中国威胁”。莫迪政府继承了这一传统,并日益从零和思维的角度看待中国的行为,所采取的制衡策略并没有严格区分权力制衡和威胁制衡,且不断主动加强冲突和对抗的频度和力度。莫迪政府在对华方向的进攻性态势突出表现在2020年中印边界西段的对峙危机中,加勒万河谷冲突后莫迪政府对华采取了多种充满进攻性的主动策略。本文认为莫迪政府受限于自身实力不足,将己方充满进攻性的策略成败寄希望于一个更强大的对手在主权受损情况下依然保持克制。印度对华策略的进攻性与自身的侥幸心理形成了鲜明对比,是一个先天不足、注定失败的策略。

At present,there are different views in the academia about whether the diplomatic strategy of the Modi government has subverted the traditional model of India's diplomacy.The author proposes that India's diplomatic practice of Modi's administration maintains the continuity on the whole.The Modi government has inherited the tradition of India's great power dream,but he believes that India is already a great power,and his main task currently is to maintain and utilize India's great power status.In Indian strategic community,there is a tradition that take China as an important reference object though different expressions can be seen during different periods.The difference lies in whether China should be defined as a real threat or a potential threat to India,or what is the nature of“China threat”and how to respond to it.Modi government follows this tradition and increasingly viewed China s behavior through a zero-sum perspective,where it adopted a strategy of checks and balances that did not strictly distinguish between the“balance of power”and“balance of threat”,and increasingly took the initiative to increase the frequency and intensity of conflict and confrontation.The Modi government s aggressive posture towards China is prominently manifested in the confrontation crisis in the western sector of the Sino-Indian border in 2020.After the conflict in the Galwan Valley,the Modi government adopted a variety of proactive and offensive strategies towards China.This article believes that though Modi government is limited to the lack of strength,it hopes that the stronger opponents will exercise restraint when its sovereignty is damaged.The aggressiveness of India's strategy towards China is in stark contrast to its fluke mind,and it is an inherently inadequate strategy.