楚雄州森林火险综合预报模型研究

Study on Integrated Forest Fire Risk Forecasting Model in Chuxiong Prefecture

基于2000—2014年楚雄州的历史森林火灾数据,运用时间序列分析和空间数据挖掘方法,借助ArcGIS 10.2软件,融合地表可燃物、地形因子及人类活动等森林火灾风险因子,构建楚雄州森林火险综合预报模型,并利用森林火灾综合火险指数(FFCDI)进行森林火灾风险评估及风险等级划分。结果表明:楚雄州森林火灾呈季节性演变规律,集中发生在1—5月的冬春季节,楚雄市、禄丰县是楚雄州森林火灾频发地区,且分别在距离居民点3 000~4 000 m、距离道路600~1 000 m、海拔1 000~2 500 m、坡度5°~25°、阳坡和半阳坡的森林火灾分布最多。楚雄州森林火灾的发生受到可燃物、人类活动、地形等因素复杂的相互耦合作用。据此建立的楚雄州森林火险综合预报模型,预报结果空间分布精细程度更高,可以有效控制约88.21%的火点。综上所述,楚雄州森林火灾风险综合预报模型可为地区合理布置森林防火力量和设备提供有效参考,提高楚雄州森林防火水平。

Based on the historical forest fire data of Chuxiong Prefecture from 2000 to 2014, using time series analysis and spatial data mining methods, with the help of ArcGIS 10.2 software, integrating surface combustibles, topographic factors and human activities and other forest fire risk factors to construct a comprehensive forest fire risk forecast model for Chuxiong Prefecture, and use the Forest Fire Composite Danger Index(FFCDI)for forest fire risk assessment and risk classification. The results show that the forest fires in Chuxiong Prefecture are seasonally evolving, and they mainly occur in winter and spring from January to May. Chuxiong City and Lufeng County are the areas where forest fires frequently occur in Chuxiong Prefecture, and they are respectively3 000–4 000 m away from residential areas and forest fires are the most distributed at 600–1 000 m away from the road, 1 000–2 500 m above sea level, 5°–25° slope, sunny slope and shady slope. The occurrence of forest fires in Chuxiong Prefecture is affected by the complex interaction of combustible materials, human activities, topographical conditions and other factors. Based on this, the Chuxiong Prefecture forest fire risk comprehensive forecast model has a more precise spatial distribution of forecast results and can effectively control about 88.21% of fire points. In summary, the comprehensive forest fire risk forecast model in Chuxiong Prefecture can provide an effective reference for the reasonable deployment of forest fire prevention forces and equipment in the region, and improve the forest fire prevention level in Chuxiong Prefecture.