不同生育政策背景下育龄妇女的生育行为影响因素研究——基于CGSS2017年数据的实证分析

A Research on Influencing Factors of Fertility Behavior of Women of Childbearing Age under Different Fertility Policies:An Empirical Analysis Based on 2017 CGSS Data

利用中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2017年数据,使用Ordered Logit回归方法研究不同生育政策背景下育龄妇女的生育行为,同时将生育意愿作为中介变量,进一步探究生育政策对育龄妇女生育行为的影响。研究表明,生育政策会影响育龄妇女的生育行为,一类、二类生育政策较严格地区的育龄妇女倾向生育1个孩子,三类、四类生育政策较宽松地区的育龄妇女倾向生育2个孩子,生育政策对生育行为产生显著影响。通过结构方程模型和KHB方法验证了生育意愿的中介效应,发现生育意愿对生育行为也有显著影响且影响程度高于生育政策对生育行为的影响,这解释了生育政策放宽后,我国的生育率短暂上升后又下降的现象。总体而言,育龄妇女的生育行为受家庭、社会和政策等多种因素影响,应创造“生育友好”的家庭、社会环境并完善生育福利政策,提升妇女的生育意愿。

Using the data of China General Social Survey(CGSS)in 2017,this paper uses Ordered Logit regression to study the relationship between the reproductive behavior of women of childbearing age under different reproductive policies,and uses the reproductive intention as an intermediary variable to further explore the impact on reproductive behavior of women of child-bearing age.The results show that the fertility policy can affect the fertility behavior of the women of childbearing age.The women of childbearing age in the areas with strict fertility policies of the first and second categories tend to have one child,and the women of childbearing age in the areas with relaxed fertility policies of the third and fourth categories tend to have two children,and it has a significant effect on fertility behavior.At the same time,the structure equation model and KHB method are used to verify the mediating effect of fertility intention,the influence degree is higher than the influence of the policy on the fertility behavior,which explains the fact that after the implementation of the“two-child policy”,the birth rate of China rises briefly and then drops again.In general,the reproductive behavior of women of childbearing age is affected by multiple factors such as family,society and policies,therefore,a childbearing-friendly family and social environment should be created and fertility welfare should be improved to enhance women's willingness to give birth.