工业稳增长:国际经验、现实挑战与政策导向

Stabilizing Industrial Growth:International Experience,Practical Challenges and Policy Orientation

当前中国经济发展面临需求收缩、供给冲击、预期转弱三重压力,经济工作稳字当头、稳中求进需要工业稳增长并发挥重要的支撑作用。世界经济发展的经验表明,工业在推动经济增长、带动产业升级、应对系统冲击、促进科技创新等方面的关键角色不可替代。近年来,新一轮科技革命给工业发展带来新的机遇和挑战,世界主要工业国相继制定实施振兴制造业战略,全球实体经济朝着数字化、绿色化、融合化的方向发展。与此同时,全球产业分工在地缘政治、新的贸易规则影响下正在发生改变,外部不确定性增加。中国工业在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下表现出来的强劲发展韧性和取得的突出成绩为工业稳增长奠定了坚实基础,但三重压力加大了中国工业下行风险,“大而不强”等深层次矛盾和问题亟待解决,工业稳增长对保持制造业占比的基本稳定意义重大。本文阐述了工业稳增长的内涵和多重作用,提出工业稳增长要注意工业稳与宏观经济稳、当下稳与长期稳、行业稳与区域稳的统筹协调,同时处理好稳增长与育动能、工业与服务业、疫情防控与工业发展、大企业与中小企业、稳链与补链强链、工业化与绿色化、产业集聚与区域均衡发展、国内与国际循环的八大关系,在宏观、产业、微观三个层面找准政策着力点,从九个方面采取措施促进工业稳增长。

At present,China’s economic development is facing the “triple pressure” of demand contraction,supply shock and expectations weakening,and economic work’s steady pledge require industry to play an important supporting role in stabilizing growth.The experience of world economic development shows that the key role of industry in promoting economic growth,driving industrial development,coping with system shocks,and promoting scientific and technological innovation is irreplaceable.In recent years,a new round of scientific and technological revolution has brought new opportunities and challenges to industrial development,the world’s major industrial countries have taken the revitalization of manufacturing as an essential development strategy,and the global real economy has developed in the direction of digitalization,greening and integration.At the same time,the global industrial division of labor is changing under the influence of geopolitics and new trade rules,and external uncertainty is increasing.The strong development resilience and outstanding achievements of China’s industry under the impact of the COVID-19 have laid a solid foundation for stable industrial growth,but the triple pressure has increased the downward risks on China’s industry,deep-rooted contradictions and problems such as “big but not strong” have yet to be solved,the steady growth of industry is of great significance to maintaining the basic stability of the proportion of manufacturing.This paper expounds the connotation and multiple roles of industrial steady growth,proposes that steady industrial growth should be coordinated with industrial stability and macroeconomic stability,current stability and long-term stability,industry stability and regional stability,and at the same time deal with stable growth and kinetic energy,industry and service industry,epidemic prevention and control and industrial development,large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises,stable chain and supplementary chain,industrialization and greening,industrial agglomeration and regional balanced development,domestic and international circulation relationship.At the macro,industrial,micro three levels,measures have been taken from nine aspects to promote steady industrial growth.