现行增值税制度是否有利于我国生育政策的推进?

Is the Current Value-added Tax System Conducive to Promoting China’s Fertility Policy?

2021年我国生育政策调整为“三孩政策”,政府从财税、育儿、就业、住房等方面给予配套支持,以促进我国生育政策的有效落实。对于大多数家庭而言,抚育成本高是影响其生育孩子的首要原因,而增值税作为我国的第一大税种,是居民税收负担的重要组成部分。因此,本文从税收负担视角出发,聚焦增值税,利用“中国家庭追踪调查”数据和投入产出模型,分析了我国现行增值税制度下有孩家庭的消费特征与税收负担,发现有孩家庭偏好商品的有效税率更高,承担的增值税税负更重,不利于我国生育政策的推进。基于此,本文借鉴国际经验,提出降低与抚育孩子有关项目所适用的增值税税率水平,以降低抚育成本,助力我国生育政策的推进。

In 2021, China’s fertility policy has been adjusted to the “Three-child policy”, and the government will provide support from fiscal, parenting, employment, housing and other aspects to promote the effective implementation of China’s fertility policy. For most families, the high cost of raising children is the primary reason affecting their childbearing, and the value-added tax, as the largest tax category in China, is an important part of the tax burden of residents. Therefore, from the perspective of tax burden, this paper focuses on the value-added tax and uses CFPS data and input-output model to analyze the consumption characteristics and tax burden between families with and without children under China’s current value-added tax system. It is found that effective tax rates of goods preferred by families with children is higher and the value-added tax burden born by families with children is heavier, which are not conducive to promoting China’s fertility policy. Thus, based on international experience, this paper puts forward the suggestion that it should reduce the VAT rates applicable to child-rearing items so as to reduce child-rearing costs and help promote China’s fertility policy.