我国煤炭供需监测体系及预测预警机制研究

Research on monitoring system and prediction and early warning mechanism of coal supply and demand in China

深入分析了煤矿产能变化原因,构建了煤矿产能供需监测体系;经过研究,认为国家宏观经济发展状况、煤炭下游行业发展都对煤炭需求和消费形成重要影响,由此确定了GDP、商品房销售面积、基建投资、挖掘机销量、建材成交量5个宏观经济方面的数据指标,确定了电力行业各省用电量,钢铁行业生铁产量、焦炭产量,建材行业水泥和平板玻璃产量等指标作为煤炭下游行业影响的数据指标,构建了煤炭下游行业数据监测体系。同时,在研究煤炭供给预测机理和煤炭需求预测机理基础上,对煤炭供需预警机制进行了深入研究,认为,当预测的某时期的煤炭库存与消费的比例小于0.7时,若煤炭供需比大于1.012,则可能实现煤炭供需平衡;若供需比运行在1.006~1.012区间,煤炭市场供需关系表现为紧平衡;若供需比小于1.006,则煤炭市场供需关系表现为失衡。在完善新形势下国家煤炭储备体系建设、提高市场调节能力方面,认为,应根据煤炭需求波动规律,适时调整煤炭储备规模;应根据煤炭流动规律,优化煤炭储备基地布局;应完善煤炭进口动态调节机制。

The reasons for the change of coal mine production capacity were deeply analyzed,and the monitoring system of coal mine production capacity supply and demand was constructed.The research results showed that the national macroeconomic development condition and the development of coal downstream industries had an important impact on coal demand and consumption,on the basis,five macroeconomic data indicators,including GDP,commercial housing sales area,infrastructure investment,excavator sales and building materials trading volume,were determined,and the power consumption of each province in the power industry was achieved.Taking pig iron and coke production of iron and steel industry and cement and flat glass production of building materials industry as the data index of the coal downstream industry,the data monitoring system of the coal downstream industry was constructed.At the same time,based on the study of coal supply prediction mechanism and coal demand prediction mechanism,the early warning mechanism of coal supply and demand was deeply studied.It was considered that when the predicted ratio of coal inventory to consumption in a certain period was less than 0.7,and if the ratio of coal supply to demand was greater than 1.012,the balance of coal supply and demand might be realized;if the ratio of coal supply to demand ran in the range of 1.006 to 1.012,the supply-demand relationship in the coal market was in tight balance;if the ratio of coal supply to demand was less than 1.006,the supply-demand relationship in the coal market was unbalanced.In terms of improving the construction of the national coal reserve system and the market regulation ability under the new situation,it was considered that the scale of coal reserves should be adjusted in time according to the law of coal demand fluctuation,the layout of coal reserve bases should be optimized according to the law of coal flow,and the dynamic regulation mechanism of coal import should be improved.