三孩政策下城乡居民生育意愿

A Study on the Fertility Intentions of Urban and Rural Residents under the Three-Child Policy

针对当前高度复杂和不确定的生育环境,我国采取了渐进式的生育政策调整策略,从取消生育间隔限制到实行单独二孩、全面二孩政策,再到实施三孩政策,满足了不同人群多样化的生育需求。三孩政策下人们的二孩和三孩生育意愿及影响因素的差异是以往调查和研究未能涉及的。因此本文基于湖北省125个区县12014个家庭生育意愿调查数据对城乡居民二孩、三孩生育意愿及影响因素进行研究,发现三孩政策覆盖下的家庭中,二孩家庭占比已超过四成。一孩、二孩家庭的平均理想子女数分别为1.57和2.07。随着育龄妇女年龄的增长,一孩家庭二孩生育意愿和二孩家庭三孩生育意愿均在快速下降。25岁以下育龄妇女家庭的二孩生育意愿比例农村和城市分别为25.36%和18.75%。居民二孩生育意愿和三孩生育意愿的影响因素也存在明显差异。随着育龄妇女受教育程度的提升,城乡居民二孩生育意愿趋于收敛,三孩生育意愿差距在扩大。家庭社会经济地位和地区经济发展水平对生育意愿的影响存在一种悖论关系。对于二孩生育意愿,在一个区域内,社会经济地位越高的群体报告的二孩生育意愿越高,但进行跨区域比较发现经济发展水平越高的地区,居住在其中的家庭二孩生育意愿越低。

Under the three-child policy,the differences between people’s second and third child fertility intentions and the influencing factors are not covered by previous investigations and studies.Based on the survey data of 12014 families in 125 districts in Hubei Province,the results show that the average ideal number of children for one-child and two-child families is 1.57 and 2.07,respectively.As women of child‐bearing age grow older,the fertility intentions of one-child families and two-child families is declining rapidly.The proportion of second child fertility intention for women under 25 is 25.36%in rural areas and 18.75%in city.There are also obvious differences in the influencing factors of residents’second and third child fertility intentions.With the improvement of the education level of women of childbearing age,the second child fertility intentions of urban and rural families tend to converge,and third child fertility in‐tentions of urban and rural families tends to expanding.For the second child fertility intention,the groups with higher socio-economic status have higher second child fertility intention,but the higher the level of economic development,the lower the second child fertility intention of families living in them.For the three-child fertility intention,the three child fertility intention changes in an“inverted U-shape”with the improvement of family socio-economic status and in a“positive U-shape”with the improvement of regional economic development level.