政府救助对农户贫困脆弱性的影响及作用机制——基于PSM-DID方法的研究

The Impact and Mechanism of Government Assistance on Villagers'Poverty Vulnerability:An Analysis Based on PSM-DID Method

政府救助作为我国扶贫工作中的一项重大政策,客观地评价其对农村家庭未来贫困的影响效果,对解决“三农问题”,推进乡村振兴的实施具有重要意义。本研究采用2010年、2014年和2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)全国农村的面板数据,利用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID)研究政府救助对农村家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。研究结果表明:政府救助并未能降低农村家庭贫困脆弱性,反而增加了家庭未来陷入贫困的概率。进一步的机理分析表明,一方面,现有的政府救助政策对贫困人口的瞄准存在较大偏误,另一方面农户的发展意愿在政府救助的实施和贫困脆弱性提高之间产生显著中介效应,政府救助并没有起到“扶志”的作用,这些因素共同导致政府救助难以起到降低家庭未来陷入贫困可能的作用。

As government assistance is a major policy in China's poverty alleviation work,objective evaluation of the impact of such a policy on the future poverty of rural families is of great significance to rural revitalization.The present study analyzes the impact of government assistance on villagers'poverty vulnerability by using the panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)in 2010,2014,and 2018 in rural areas across the country,and the difference in differences-propensity score matching(PSM-DID)method.The results show that:government assistance has not effectively reduced the villagers'poverty vulnerability;instead it has increased the probability of their returning to poverty in the future.A further analysis of the mechanism shows that the existing government assistance policies are fairly inaccurate in targeting the poor,and fail to strengthen the villagers'willingness of developing economy,which has obvious mediating effect between government assistance and poverty vulnerability.As a result,government assistance can hardly reduce the possibility of villagers're-falling into poverty in the future.