情报分析中的不确定性问题--国家安全情报视域下的分析

Uncertainty in Intelligence Analysis:A Study from the Perspective of National Security Intelligence

[目的/意义]不确定性问题是情报工作中的最大阻力,是情报分析失误的重要原因。国家安全情报工作是政治集团之间的对抗角力,呈现的不确定性更加突出。立足国家安全情报视域,研究情报分析中的不确定性问题,对我国完善情报分析理论,提升情报分析水平,赢得情报优势和决策优势具有重要意义。[方法/过程]在回顾国内外学者研究成果的基础上,对情报分析中的不确定性问题进行系统性的梳理与探讨,指出不确定性问题产生的原因与应对措施。[结果/结论]情报分析中的不确定性问题是各种原因综合导致的,其客观存在且无法消除,但通过科学的方法和措施可以有效降低情报分析中的不确定性。

[Purpose/significance]Uncertainty is the largest obstacle in intelligence and the main reason for the failure of intelligence analysis.National security intelligence is the confrontation among political groups,presenting more noteworthy uncertainty.The study of the uncertainty in intelligence analysis from the perspective of national security intelligence is significant for completing the theory of intelligence analysis,improving the level of intelligence analysis,and winning the advantage of intelligence and decision.[Method/process]On the basis of reviewing the studies of domestic and foreign scholars,this paper systematically sorts out and discusses the uncertainty in intelligence analysis,and points out the causes and countermeasures.[Result/conclusion]The uncertainty in intelligence analysis is caused by various reasons.It exists objectively and cannot be eliminated.However,the uncertainty in intelligence analysis can be effectively reduced by scientific methods and measures.