2018—2020年兰州市气温与流行性感冒发病的关联性

Relevance between temperature and influenza incidence in Lanzhou city,2018-2020

目的 探究2018—2020年甘肃省兰州市气温与流行性感冒(简称流感)发病的关系。方法 收集兰州市2018—2020年流感发病资料与同期气象资料,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)分析气温与流感发病的关系。结果2018—2019年兰州市共报告流感2 568例,男女性别比1.05∶1;Spearman相关分析显示流感日发病数与气温呈负相关(r=-0.472)。DLNM拟合结果显示,以日均气温11.16℃为参照,低温在-9℃,滞后1 d(lag 1 d)时RR值最大(2.20,95%CI:0.92~5.30);高温在21℃,lag 3 d时RR值最大(2.90,95%CI:1.42~5.94)。当温度为-4.9℃(P5)时,对0~5岁儿童累积效应在lag 14 d时最大,RR值为42.76(95%CI:1.91~960.10);当温度为24.7℃(P90)时,对0~5岁人群累积效应在lag 7 d时最大,RR值为12.46(95%CI:1.03~151.42)。2020年兰州市共报告流感1 065例,男、女性别比为1.08∶1;Spearman相关分析显示流感日发病数与气温呈负相关(r=-0.379)。DLNM拟合结果显示,以日均气温11.14℃为参照,低温在4℃,lag 5 d时RR值最大(1.28,95%CI:0.48~3.45);高温在27℃,lag 0 d时RR值最大(1.27,95%CI:0.37~4.33)。当温度为22.0℃(P90)时,6~15岁人群的累积效应在lag 3 d时最大,RR值为42.53(95%CI:1.20~1 734.06)。结论 气温在不同滞后日与流感日发病数呈非线性关系,低温效应持续时间高于高温效应。

Objective To explore the relevance between the air temperature and the influenza epidemic in Lanzhou city of Gansu province from 2018 to 2020.Methods The information of the influenza epidemic and the meteorological data at same term were collected,and the relationship between the temperature and the influenza incidence was analyzed with the distribution lagged nonlinear model(DLNM) in Lanzhou city from 2018 to 2020.Results A total of 2 568 influenza cases were reported in Lanzhou city during 2018 to 2019,with the ratio of the male to the female of 1.05∶1.The spearman’s rank correlation analysis showed the negative correlation(r=-0.472) between the daily influenza incidence and the temperature.The fitting results of DLNM showed when the average daily air temperature of 11.16 ℃ was set as the reference,when the temperature was-9 ℃ and lagged 1 d,the RR was the largest(2.20,95%CI:0.92-5.30).When the temperature was 21 ℃ and lagged 3 d,the RR was the largest(2.90,95%CI:1.42-5.94).When the temperature was-4.9 ℃(P5),the accumulative effect of the children aged 0-5 years was largest at lag 14 d,the RR was the largest(42.76,95%CI:1.91-960.10).When the temperature was 24.7 ℃(P90),the accumulative effect of the children aged 0-5 years was largest at lag 7 d,the RR was the largest(12.46,95%CI:1.03-151.42).In 2020,there were 1 065 influenza cases reported in Lanzhou city,and the ratio of the male to the female was 1.08∶1.The spearman’s rank correlation analysis showed the negative correlation(r=-0.379) between the daily influenza incidence and the temperature.The fitting results of DLNM showed when the average daily temperature of11.14℃ was set as the reference,when the temperature was 4 ℃ and lag 5 d,the RR was largest(1.28,95%CI:0.48-3.45).When the temperature was 27 ℃ and lag 0 d,the RR was largest(1.27,95%CI:0.37-4.33).When the temperature was22.0 ℃(P90),the accumulative effect of the children aged 6-15 years was largest at lag 3 d,and the RR was 42.53(95%CI:1.20-1 734.06).Conclusions There is a non-linear relationship between the temperature at different lag days and number of daily influenza cases,and the duration of the low temperature effect is longer than that of high temperature effect.