构建境外输入新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的快速风险评估体系

Establishment of a rapid risk assessment system for imported COVID-19 cases

目的构建境外输入新型冠状病毒肺炎(新冠肺炎)病例的快速风险评估体系,为口岸疫情防控提供参考依据。方法收集2021年7-8月12个关注国家的新冠肺炎疫情流行和防控情况,从12个方面构建境外输入病例的快速风险评估体系,利用风险矩阵法开展快速风险评估。结果评估结果显示,12个关注国家均为境外输入病例的高风险地区或极高风险地区,其中俄罗斯和美国的输入风险最高。结论基于风险矩阵法构建的快速风险评估体系能够帮助口岸工作人员判断疫情来源国从境外向我国输入病例的风险级别,2021年8月境外新冠肺炎病例输入北京市口岸的风险较高。

Objective To develop a rapid risk assessment tool for imported COVID-19 cases and provide reference evidences for prevention and control of COVID-19 at ports.Methods The information about COVID-19 pandemic and control strategies of 12 concerned countries was collected during July to August 2021,and 12 indexes were selected to assess the importation risk of COVID-19 by risk matrix.Results The risk for imported COVID-19 cases from 12 countries to China was high or extremely high,and the risk from Russia and the USA was highest.Conclusions The developed rapid risk assessment tool based on the risk matrix method can be used to determine the risk level of countries for imported COVID-19 cases to China at ports,and the risk of imported COVID-19 was high at Beijing port in August 2021.