数字贸易、贸易开放度与“一带一路”沿线国家经济增长

Digital Trade,Trade Openness and Economic Growth of Countries along the"Belt and Road"

采用“一带一路”沿线45个国家2010—2019年的面板数据,深入分析数字贸易对沿线国家经济增长的作用机制及贸易开放水平与经济增长的关系.结果表明,数字贸易可以通过提升贸易开放水平从而促进经济增长;贸易开放水平与经济增长具有倒U型非线性关系,而“一带一路”沿线国家贸易开放水平均未达到临界值,故对经济增长存在抑制作用;发展中国家和中等开放度国家数字贸易对经济增长具有正向促进作用.因此,各国应加强数字基础设施建设,提升贸易开放质量,充分利用“一带一路”倡议,使得沿线国家互惠互利,促进经济高速发展.

This paper employs the panel data from 45 countries along the Belt and Road within 2010-2019 to deeply analyze the impact of mechanism of digital trade on economic growth of countries along the route and the relationship between the level of trade opening and economic growth.The results show that digital trade can promote economic growth by improving the level of trade opening;there is an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship between trade openness and economic growth,nevertheless,the level of countries along"the Belt and Road"does not reach the threshold,thus economic growth suppresses it;digital trade in developing countries and moderately open countries plays a positive role in promoting economic growth.Therefore,all countries should strengthen the construction of digital infrastructure,improve the quality of trade opening up and make full use of"the Belt and Road",so that the countries along the Belt and Road can be mutually beneficial and promote rapid economic development.