高标准农田建设项目三方演化博弈与仿真研究

Tripartite Evolutionary Game and Simulation of Well-Facilitated Farmland Construction Projects

为研究高标准农田建设项目的管理和土地流转问题,在三方有限理性基础上,构建政府、农民及承包户三方演化博弈模型,同时结合系统动力学方法对三方利益主体的行为策略进行仿真分析。结果表明:三方博弈主体根据自身收益的变化调整选择策略,系统最终可达到政府建设高标准农田、农民流转农田、承包户受让农田的稳定均衡状态;在演化过程中,政府对农民和承包户的行为策略起到引导作用,农民流转农田是系统趋于稳定的前提条件,农田的耕作成本也是影响博弈三方达到稳定均衡点的重要因素。基于此,建议从优化三方主体协调机制、重视农民流转农田得益、提高农田开发科技含量等方面促进高标准农田可持续发展。

To study the management and land transfer of well-facilitated farmland construction projects,a three-party evolutionary game model of government,farmers and contractors was constructed on the basis of the limited rationality of the three parties,and the SD Model was built by combining the system dynamics method to simulate and analyze the behavior strategies of the three parties.Adopting the tripartite evolutionary game and system dynamics method,this paper first analyzed the pure strategy of the three-party evolutionary game model and then the influence of the external variables of the model on the equilibrium strategy.The numerical simulation results show that the three parties adjust the selection strategy by adapting to the change of their own income,and the system can finally reach the stable equilibrium of well-facilitated farmland construction by the government,farmland circulation by farmers and farmland transfer by contractors.In the process of the evolutionary game,the stable equilibrium point of the three-party game subject is affected by external variables,among which the government plays a guiding role in the behavior strategies of farmers and contractors.The transfer of farmland by farmers is the prerequisite for the system to become stable,and the planting cost of farmland is also an important factor affecting the three parties in the game to reach a stable equilibrium point.In conclusion,sustainable development of well-facilitated farmland can be promoted by optimizing the tripartite coordination mechanism,paying attention to farmers’enthusiasm in transferring farmland,reasonably adjusting the amount of government subsidies for farmers’arable land and improving the scientific and technological content of farmland development.