家庭投资风险偏好对生育行为的影响研究——基于CGSS2017数据的分析

Study on the Influence of Family Investment Risk Preference on Fertility Behavior:Analysis based on CGSS2017 Data

为探究我国家庭投资风险偏好对于生育行为的影响,运用2017年中国综合社会调查(CGSS 2017)数据,将生育行为划分为生育意愿与实际生育行为进行实证分析。总体而言,家庭投资风险偏好会影响生育行为,高投资风险偏好会抑制生育行为。研究还发现,收入、教育、户籍、年龄、房产数量和收入风险等因素都会影响家庭生育行为。从区域异质性分析来看,东部地区家庭的高投资风险偏好会抑制生育行为,中部地区家庭的高投资风险偏好会促进实际生育行为,而西部地区家庭的高投资风险偏好会促进生育意愿但抑制实际生育行为。从其他异质性分析来看,受教育程度较高家庭的高投资风险偏好会促进生育行为,受教育程度较低家庭的高投资风险偏好则会抑制生育行为。由结论分析,在提高我国家庭经济收入和风险投资收益的同时,缓解因生育行为导致预期收入和生活质量大幅降低,平衡家庭生育行为的成本与收益,应成为我国制定生育政策及其配套措施的重要考量问题。

In order to explore the impact of household investment risk preference on fertility behavior in China, data from the 2017 China General Social Survey(CGSS2017) were used to classify fertility behavior as fertility desire and actual fertility behavior for empirical analysis. Overall, fertility behavior was influenced by household investment risk preference, and high investment risk preference could inhibit fertility behavior. It also emerges from the study that factors such as income, education, domicile, age, number of properties and income risk all influence household fertility behavior. The analysis of regional heterogeneity suggested that the high investment risk preference of households in the eastern region inhibits fertility behavior, while the high investment risk preference of households in the central region promoted actual fertility behavior. Although the high investment risk preference of western households promoted fertility desire, it inhibited actual fertility behavior. Other analyses of heterogeneity suggested that high investment risk preference in more educated households promotes fertility behavior, while high investment risk preference in less educated households inhibited fertility behavior. From the analysis of these findings, while improving our family economic income and risk investment returns, alleviating the significant reduction of expected income and quality of life caused by fertility decision, and balancing the costs and benefits of family fertility behavior should become an important consideration in the formulation of our fertility policy and its accompanying measures.