全球流动性、通胀与金融资产价格互动演变逻辑:理论框架和经验分析

The Evolution Logic of Global Liquidity,Inflation and Financial Asset Prices:Theoretical Framework and Empirical Analysis

全球流动性的规模、结构、流向和币种构成等变化将对全球经济金融发展格局和金融稳定产生深远影响。本文在对全球流动性概念进行厘清和界定的基础上,分别从理论机制和经验分析的角度探讨不同维度全球流动性对通胀和金融资产价格的差异化影响,分析主要国际货币在全球生产和金融循环体系中的跨境流动对全球金融稳定的影响。结果发现,央行流动性是全球流动性的核心,跨境流动性主要影响他国债务和金融市场稳定,私人资产和跨境流动性的顺周期性变化将放大央行流动性对经济金融体系的影响。欧美等国际货币发行国可以将货币超发成本转嫁给其他国家,经济呈现“高全球流动性、低通胀和高金融资产价格”特点;工业出口国和大宗商品出口国货币跨境使用较少,金融资产价格除受本地流动性影响外,还受跨境流动性影响,波动较大。实体经济货币活性下降、资金分流金融市场、私人非金融部门加杠杆空间下降、新兴经济体出口价格低廉等因素共同作用,弱化了发达经济体央行流动性对通胀的影响。当前全球流动性面临拐点,我国面临的输入性金融风险加大。对此,应搭建系统、全面的流动性统计监测框架,提前做好应急预案和政策储备,提高风险抵御能力。

In the past 20 years,the scale,structure,flow direction and currency composition of global liquidity have undergone major changes,which have had a profound impact on the global economic and financial development pattern and financial stability.Firstly,this paper clarifies and defines the concept of global liquidity,and expounds on the direction of the impact of different dimensions of global liquidity on inflation and financial asset prices.Based on the status of international currencies,this paper discusses the cross-border flow of major international currencies in the global production and financial circulation system,and the differential impact on inflation,financial asset prices and financial stability in various countries.Then,this paper uses the data since 2000 to verify the above-mentioned mechanism.Mechanism analysis found that international currency issuing countries such as Europe and the United States are at the core of the global economic and financial system,being able to transfer the cost of excess currency issuance to other countries,thus presenting the characteristics of“high global liquidity,low inflation and high financial asset prices”.In contrast,industrial exporters and commodity exporters are located at the periphery of the global economic and financial system.As a result,the former economy is characterized by“low inflation,high volatility of cross-border liquidity and financial asset prices”,while the latter is characterized by“high volatility of inflation,cross-border liquidity and financial asset prices”.The empirical analysis finds that central bank liquidity has a greater impact on financial asset prices than on inflation in developed economies.Factors such as declining monetary activity in the real economy,capital diversion to the financial market,less room for leverage in the private non-financial sector,sharp fluctuations in energy prices,and low export prices in emerging economies are a combination of factors.It has weakened the impact of central bank liquidity in advanced economies on inflation.The prices of financial assets in emerging economies are affected not only by local liquidity,but also by cross-border liquidity,which fluctuates greatly.At present,global liquidity is reaching an inflection point,and China is faced with increasing imported financial risks.In this regard,a systematic and comprehensive liquidity statistical monitoring framework should be established,contingency plans and policy reserves should be prepared in advance,and risk resistance capabilities should be improved.