忻州市近40年气温、降水变化的时空分布特征

Temporal and Spatial Distribution Characteristics of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Xinzhou in Recent 40 Years

基于线性趋势分析、反距离权重插值法(IDW)、非参数Mann-Kenddall突变检验、相关性分析等方法对忻州市多年气温、降水变化及干旱特征进行了研究,为忻州小杂粮产业的发展提供了气候理论支撑,助力其成为忻州市乡村振兴的重要产业。结果表明:(1)忻州市气温、降水量上升明显,春季气温升幅最大,秋季降水量涨幅最大。(2)忻州市气温突变出现在1996年,降水量突变不显著。(3)作物生长主要月份中,9月发生干旱次数最多,5、8月发生次数最少,静乐、原平、繁峙等地干旱化发生趋势相对较高。(4)气温对降水量的影响非常明显,气温与降水量呈明显负相关。

Based on linear trend analysis, inverse distance weight interpolation(IDW), nonparametric Mann-kenddall mutation test and correlation analysis, the changes of temperature, precipitation and drought characteristics in Xinzhou for many years were studied, so as to provide climate theoretical support for the development of minor cereals industry and help it become an important industry for rural revitalization in Xinzhou. The results show that:(1) The temperature and precipitation in Xinzhou have increased significantly, with the largest temperature increase in spring and the largest precipitation increase in autumn.(2) The sudden change of temperature in Xinzhou occurred in 1996, and the sudden change of precipitation was not significant.(3) Among the main months of crop growth, the most droughts occur in September, the least in May and August. The occurrence trend of drought in Jingle, Yuanping and Fanshi is relatively high.(4) The influence of temperature on precipitation is very obvious. There is an obvious negative correlation between temperature and precipitation.