国内大循环背景下流动人口消费潜力的经济效应测度

Measuring Economic Effects of Migrants’ Consumption Potential under the Background of Domestic Economic Circulation

文章基于有效需求理论,利用第七次全国人口普查、微观调查数据和中国省级多区域投入产出表构建扩展的列昂惕夫需求驱动模型,估计2020年中国31个省份流动人口消费拉动的增加值规模,并设计基准、城镇化和市民化3种情景对“十四五”期间流动人口消费的经济影响及最优发展路径进行量化评估。结果显示,2020年流动人口消费引致的增加值达8.3万亿元(占GDP总量的8.2%);中等收入流动人口消费对经济增长的贡献最大,其消费拉动的增加值约占60%;流动人口消费创造的增加值60%以上体现在与食品、居住消费活动相关的部门;“十四五”时期加快流动人口市民化是扩大流动人口消费助力经济增长的有效途径。研究表明,流动人口的消费需求增加和消费结构升级对扩大生产规模、优化产业结构具有重要作用;扩大中等收入流动人口规模是增强社会有效需求和实现共同富裕的重要突破点;“十四五”时期中国社会经济政策实施的重点领域之一,仍是推动流动人口市民化并完善相关的配套措施。

Fully releasing residents’ consumption potential is an important pathway for accelerating the construction of the internal circulation to promote sustained economic growth. Based on multi-regional input-output table and related statistical materials including the seventh national census and micro-household survey, this paper systematically calculates the value added driven by the migrant consumption in Chinese 31 provinces in 2020 through constructing an expanded Leontief demand-driven model, and simulates the economic effect of migrants’ consumption by setting three possible scenarios(i.e. benchmark scenarios, urbanization scenarios and citizenization scenarios) during 14th Five-Year Plan.The results show that migrants’ consumption drove 8.3 trillion yuan(accounting for 8.2% of GDP) added value. The 60%of the added value was driven by the consumption activities of the middle-income migrants, which is the mainstay of promoting economic growth. More than 60% of the added value created by migrants’ consumption is embodied in the food-and housing-related sectors. Accelerating the citizenship of the migrants is the most effective pathway to release consumption potential during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. This research suggests that the increase of final demand and the upgrading of the consumption structure for migrants play a pivotal role in expanding the scale of production and optimizing the industrial structure.