外需收缩、杠杆波动与宏观政策协调

External Demand Contraction,Leverage Fluctuation and Macro Policy Coordination

文章建立了包含地方政府、房企、居民家庭等非金融部门和金融中介在内的动态随机一般均衡模型引入非金融部门,基于土地及房产的抵押融资行为,分析了外部需求收缩下实体经济不同部门的杠杆率变动及其传导机制,并据此检验不同宏观政策组合的有效性。研究发现,外部需求下降拖累本国出口继而削减产出,货币政策逆周期宽松应对产出下降,推动地价及房价上涨,提高了地方政府、房企和家庭的借贷能力,推升了宏观杠杆率,并造成冲击结束后实体部门的被动去杠杆过程,而居民住房抵押借贷能力的增加以及基于借贷约束的资产配置变动进一步推升了股市泡沫。对此,在传统货币政策和管理浮动汇率的宏观政策组合基础上,使用贷款价值比和存款准备金率的逆周期宏观审慎政策组合,可以缓解外部需求下降造成的实体杠杆率波动,限制非金融部门的过度借贷行为。叠加房产税的逆周期调节能有效增加实体经济的消费及投资,缓解政府支出的负向波动,减少外部需求下降对产出造成的不利影响。

This paper establishes a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,which includes representative non-financial sectors and financial intermediaries,and introduces the financing behavior of non-financial sectors using land and real estate as collateral.Based on that,the paper analyzes the changes of leverage ratios of different real economic sectors amid the shrinking external demand,as well as the transmission mechanisms,and thus assesses the effectiveness of different policy combinations.The study finds that the decline in external demand drags down exports and then reduces output.The countercyclical loosing of monetary policy responding to the output decline has promoted the rise of land and house prices,increased the borrowing capacity of local governments,real estate enterprises and households,pushed up the macro-leverage ratio,and caused the passive deleveraging process of the real sector after the shock ended.Households’ability to borrow through residential mortgages has increased,and changes in asset allocation based on borrowing constraints have further pushed up the stock market bubble.In this regard,based on the combination of traditional monetary policy and the macroeconomic policy of managing floating,the use of the macro-prudential policies combinations including the loan-to-value ratio and reserve ratio requirements can alleviate the leverage fluctuation of the real sectors caused by the decline in external demand and restrict excessive borrowing in the non-financial sector.Further counter-cyclical adjustment of property tax can effectively increase consumption and investment,alleviate negative fluctuations in government expenditures,and reduce the adverse effects of falling external demand on output.