长江口南槽航道治理工程生态健康模糊评价

Study on fuzzy evaluation of ecological health of waterway regulation engineering at South Channel of Yangtze River Estuary

长江口南槽航道是长江口乃至整个长江流域发挥通航、生态作用的关键区域之一。为评估长江口南槽航道一期治理工程对邻近海域以及九段沙生态敏感区的影响,考虑航道的航运、生态、资源节约以及协调等因素,设置完整性及独立性较强的南槽航道治理工程评价指标体系。利用群决策层次分析法赋予权重,采用模糊综合评价法对航道健康水平进行评价,并对结果进行敏感度分析。结果表明:长江口南槽航道工程生态健康水平“优秀”隶属度最高,航道工程生态效果较好。总体上航道治理工程没有破坏航道及生态敏感区的各项功能,并且对于航道的通航功能有很大提高,但对于航道及九段沙湿地生物生境的改善作用较小。评价结果对准则权重的20%~90%幅度波动敏感性不高,具有较高的稳定性和可靠性。

The South Channel of the Yangtze Estuary is one of the key areas which play a navigation and ecological role for the Yangtze Estuary and even the Yangtze River.In order to evaluate the influence of the first-stage regulation engineering at the South Channel of the Yangtze Estuary on the adjacent sea area and the ecological sensitive area of Jiuduansha wetland,according to the navigation,ecology,resource conservation and coordinated development functions of the waterway,a comprehensive and independent evaluation index system for regulation engineering at South Channel of Yangtze River Estuary was set up.The analytic hierarchy process of group decision was used to give weights,the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method was used to evaluate the health level of the channel,and the sensitivity analysis was conduct on the results.The results show that the membership degree of excellent of ecological health level for the South Channel Waterway engineering is the highest,demonstrating that the ecological effect of the waterway engineering is good.It is proved that the waterway regulation engineering has not destroyed the functions of the waterway and ecologically sensitive areas,and greatly improved the navigation function of the waterway,but had little effect on improving the biological habitat of the waterway and Jiuduansha wetland.The sensitivity analysis results show that the evaluation results are not sensitive to criterion weights of 20%~90%fluctuation,having high stability and reliability.