基于贝叶斯网络的矿区工程事故成因分析

Cause analysis of engineering accidents in mining area based on Bayesian network

矿区工程形成影响因素较为复杂,现阶段并没有准确分析方法获得矿区工程事故成因分析方法,因此分析基于贝叶斯网络的矿区工程事故成因方法。构建可能导致矿区工程事故发生的故障树,统计矿区工程事故之中各个基础事件发生的概率,根据该概率重要程度描述矿区工程事故发生的概率;结合专家先验知识根据贝叶斯网络的基本原理,构建矿区工程事故成因的贝叶斯网络分析模型,将故障树的节点看作贝叶斯网结构的根节点,利用贝叶斯网络强大的推理功能,分析各影响因素导致矿区工程事故发生的概率,获得事故成因分析结果。针对实际案例开展研究后发现,管理因素及人为因素中的管理制度不完善以及人员操作违规,都是导致矿区工程事故的主要成因。

The factors affecting the formation of mining area engineering are relatively complex.At this stage,there is no accurate analysis method to obtain the cause analysis method of mining area engineering accident.Therefore,the method for the cause of mining area engineering accident based on Bayesian network was analyzed.Builded a fault tree that may lead to engineering accidents in the mining area,counted the probability of each basic event in the engineering accidents in the mining area,and described the probability of engineering accidents in the mining area according to the importance of the probability;Constructed a Bayesian network analysis model for the causes of engineering accidents in mining areas,regarded the nodes of the fault tree as the root nodes of the Bayesian network structure,and used the powerful reasoning function of the Bayesian network to analyze the factors that cause the occurrence of engineering accidents in mining areas.Probability and obtain the results of accident cause analysis.After conducting research on actual cases,it was found that the imperfect management system in management factors and human factors and the illegal operation of personnel were the main causes of engineering accidents in mining areas.