我国体育彩票业发展空间演化及影响因素研究

Spatial Evolution and Influencing Factors of China’s Sports Lottery Industry

为了促进我国体育彩票业高质量发展,充分发挥国家彩票的功能,采用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)和地理加权回归模型(GWR),对我国体育彩票业发展空间演化及影响因素进行研究。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年我国体育彩票业规模、成本、收益均呈现波浪式上升趋势;(2)2000—2020年我国各地区体育彩票发展规模差异趋小,各地区体育彩票业发展成本和收益差异较大,二者象限分布呈现基本一致的特征;(3)2000—2020年我国体育彩票业规模空间集聚地区数量逐渐减少,且以“低—低”集聚为主,体育彩票发展成本和收益空间集聚地区数量呈现基本一致的倒“U”型态势,东部地区以“高—高”集聚为主,西部地区以“低—低”为主;(4)地区生产总值和居民可支配收入与体育彩票收益发展呈较强正相关,失业率对体育彩票收益影响较小。

In order to promote the high-quality development of China’s sports lottery industry,give full play to the function of the national lottery. In this study,exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)and geographic weighted regression model(GWR)were used to study the spatial evolution and influencing factors of China’s sports lottery industry. The research results showed that:1)All the scale,cost and income of China’s sports lottery industry from 2000 to 2020 showed a wavy upward trend;2)From 2000 to 2020,the difference of sports lottery development scale in various regions of China is becoming smaller,the development cost and income of sports lottery industry in different regions vary greatly,the two quadrant distribution presents basically consistent characteristics;3)From 2000 to 2020,the number of large-scale and spatial agglomeration areas of China’s sports lottery industry has gradually decreased,and mainly with the“low-low”agglomeration,the number of areas where the development cost and income space of sports lottery gather shows basically the same inverted “U”-shaped situation,the eastern region is dominated by“high-high”agglomeration,the western region is mainly “low-low”;4)GDP and disposable income are positively associated with the development of sports lottery income,unemployment has less impact on sports lottery gains.