MaxEnt与遥感技术在草原蝗虫灾害风险监测中的应用:以东乌珠穆沁旗农业文化遗产为例

Application of MaxEnt and Remote Sensing Technology in Grassland Locust Disaster Risk Monitoring:An Example from the Agricultural Heritage Systems of East Ujimqin Banner.

东乌珠穆沁旗游牧生产系统是我国重要的农业文化遗产,具有极高的生态、经济、景观、技术和文化价值,然而近年来当地饱受蝗虫灾害的影响,草原正面临着前所未有的威胁与挑战。该研究选取东乌珠穆沁旗为研究区,以草原蝗虫为风险因子,结合草原蝗虫生长特性,基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt),构建基于遥感、土壤、植被和地形的草原蝗虫发生风险指标体系,分析不同生境因子对草原蝗虫发生的影响,对草原蝗虫发生风险区进行提取并分级。结果表明:模型模拟结果良好,平均曲线下面积(areas under curve,AUC)为0.826;草原蝗虫发生风险的主要影响因子为孵化期地表温度、生长期地表温度和产卵期降水;高风险区主要分布在嘎达布其镇,面积为920 km 2。该研究有利于更好地保护东乌珠穆沁旗游牧生产系统农业文化遗产,也可为其他草原类农业文化遗产灾害风险监测提供技术支撑。

The nomadic production system of East Ujimqi Banner is an important agro-cultural heritage system in China with high ecological,economic,landscape,technological and cultural values.However,in recent years the local area has been suffering from locust disaster and the grassland is facing unprecedented threats and challenges.East Ujimqin Banner was selected as the study area,and an occurrence risk index system of grassland locust was built based on remote sensing,soil,vegetation,and topography data as well as maximum entropy model(MaxEnt),combined with grassland locust growth characteristics,to analyze the influence of different habitat factors on grassland locust occurrence.The occurrence risk areas of grassland locust in the study area were then extracted and graded.The results show that the simulated results of MaxEnt model are good with an average AUC value of 0.826.The main factors determining the occurrence risk of grassland locust are surface temperature during the incubation period,surface temperature during the growing period,and precipitation during the egg-laying period.The high-risk areas are mainly located in Gadabchi town with the area of 920 km 2.The results of the study are beneficial to better protect the agro-cultural heritage of nomadic production system in East Ujimqi Banner and can provide technical support for disaster risk monitoring of other grassland agro-cultural heritage as well.