山岭隧道塌方风险评估模型及系统研究

Study on Risk Assessment Model and System of Mountain Tunnel Collapse

塌方是隧道施工过程中经常遇到的灾害问题,由于影响其发生的因子众多,且极具复杂性和模糊性,很难对隧道建设施工过程中的塌方问题进行准确地评估。在综合考虑影响隧道塌方风险因素的基础上,归纳整理了影响塌方风险等级的3大类准则层指标,16项指标层指标,构建了山岭隧道塌方风险等级评估模型;采用模糊数学方法确定各指标的隶属函数,并基于层次分析法的原理,编写权重辅助计算程序计算了各指标的权重;为了避免单指标决策的局限性和主观臆断的缺陷,将人工智能专家系统的方法与模糊数学理论结合起来,以面向对象的表示方法构建知识库,开发基于模糊数学的山岭隧道塌方风险评估专家系统。最后利用隧道塌方实例对所提方法的有效性进行验证,评价结果符合实际情况,为隧道塌方风险的评估提供了一种新的可量化分析方法。

Collapse is a common disaster in the process of tunnel construction. Due to the complexity and fuzziness of many factors affecting its occurrence, it is difficult to accurately evaluate the collapse problem in the process of tunnel construction. Based on the comprehensive consideration of the risk factors of tunnel collapse, three categories of criteria layer indicators and 16 index layer indicators are summarized and sorted out, and the evaluation model of mountain tunnel collapse risk level is constructed. Fuzzy mathematics method is used to determine the membership function of each index, and based on the principle of analytic hierarchy process, the weight auxiliary calculation program is compiled to calculate the weight of each index. In order to avoid the limitation of single index decision-making and the defect of subjective conjecture, the method of artificial intelligence expert system is combined with fuzzy mathematics theory, and the knowledge base is constructed by object-oriented representation method, and the expert system of mountain tunnel collapse risk assessment based on fuzzy mathematics is developed. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by an example of tunnel collapse, and the evaluation results are in line with the actual situation, which provides a new quantifiable analysis method for tunnel collapse risk assessment.