国内国际“双循环”有效联动测度及其应用研究

Research on the Measurement and Application of the Effective Linkage ofDomestic Economic Cycle and International Economic Cycle

构建“双循环”新发展格局,重点在以国内大循环为主,有效联动国内国际“双循环”。通过对习近平总书记关于“双循环”相关重要讲话的深入学习和已有文献的详细梳理,结合可获得数据,科学论证构建“双循环”新发展格局指标体系。通过构建模型,设定核心变量“双循环交互项”,从宏观和微观两个视角测度国内国际“双循环”有效联动能否有效激发全要素生产率,并在微观层面验证技术创新这一中介效应,解决“双循环”领域宏观和微观层面实证研究的可操作性问题。研究表明:首先,通过熵值法构建的内、外循环发展水平存在着明显的地区差异,即东部地区较高,中西部地区依次递减。其次,在宏观层面的实证检验中,“双循环”有效联动对东部地区的促进作用较中西部地区更为显著;在微观层面的实证研究中,总体上“双循环”有效联动提升了企业全要素生产率,对国有企业和规模较大的企业有着更显著的促进作用。最后,将科技创新作为“双循环”新发展格局和企业全要素生产率的中介变量,验证了“双循环”新发展格局可以通过技术创新作用于企业全要素生产率这一路径。

To build a new dual-cycle development pattern,the focus is to focus on the domestic big cycle and effectively link the domestic and international dual cycles.Based on the in-depth study of General Secretary Xi Jinping’s important speech on“dual circulation”and the detailed review of existing literature,combined with the available data,this paper scientifically demonstrates the construction of an indicator system for a new dual-circulation development pattern.By constructing a model and setting the core variable“dual cycle interaction term”,we can measure whether the effective linkage of domestic and international double cycles can effectively stimulate total factor productivity from the macro and micro perspectives,and verify the mediating effect of technological innovation at the micro level.To solve the operability problem of empirical research at the macro and micro levels in the dual-cycle field.The research results show that:First,there are obvious regional differences in the development levels of internal and external circulation constructed by the entropy method,that is,the eastern region is higher,and the central and western regions are decreasing in turn.Secondly,in the empirical test at the macro level,the effect of the effective linkage of the dual circulation on the eastern region is more significant than that in the central and western regions;in the empirical research at the micro level,the effective interaction of the dual circulation generally improves the total factor productivity of enterprises.State-owned enterprises and larger enterprises have a more significant role in promoting.Finally,taking technological innovation as an intermediary variable between the new dual-cycle development pattern and the total factor productivity of enterprises,it verifies the effective path that the new dual-cycle development pattern can affect the total factor productivity of enterprises through technological innovation.