黑龙江省“十三五”时期生态环境质量变化及趋势预测

Change of Eco-environmental Quality in Heilongjiang Province During the 13 th Five-Year Plan Period and Its Trend Forecast

以黑龙江省生态环境监测网监测结果为基础,总结归纳了“十三五”期间黑龙江省生态环境质量变化特征,并采用随机森林和GM(1,1)预测模型对“十四五”期间黑龙江省生态环境质量状况进行了预测。结果表明:“十三五”期间,黑龙江省环境空气、水环境和声环境质量全面好转。其中,环境空气主要污染物PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)和CO的年均质量浓度均呈现出明显下降的趋势,“哈大绥”重点区域PM_(10)、SO_(2)、NO_(2)和CO年均质量浓度呈现下降趋势。地表水水质总体呈波动变化趋势,水质状况均为轻度污染。“十四五”期间,黑龙江省生态环境质量将处于稳中向好的趋势。环境空气主要污染物及地表水主要污染指标年均质量浓度均呈现明显的下降趋势,道路交通声环境质量也将得到进一步改善。

Based on the monitoring results of ecological environment monitoring network in Heilongjiang Province,the changing characteristics of ecological environment quality in Heilongjiang Province during the 13th Five-Year Plan period were summarized,and the ecological environment quality status during the 14th Five-Year Plan period was predicted by using Random Forests and GM(1,1)prediction model.The results showed that during the 13th Five-Year Plan period,the environmental quality of air,water and sound in Heilongjiang Province improved comprehensively.The annual average values of ambient air main pollutants,including PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2)and CO,showed a significant downward trend,and the annual average values of PM_(10),SO_(2),NO_(2)and CO in“Ha-Da-Sui”Key Area showed a downward trend.The quality of surface water showed a fluctuating trend,and the water quality conditions were all mildly polluted.During the 14th Five-Year Plan period,the ecological environment quality in Heilongjiang Province would be in a stable performance with good momentum trend;and the annual mean values of main pollutants in ambient air and main pollution indexes in surface water would show an obvious downward trend,and the environmental quality of road traffic sound would be further improved.